21 April, AtoZForex, Lagos – Another big day ahead as markets await the UK Retail Sales m/m figures. Bank of England governor Carney is also due to speak. Also, April ECB press conference will be hold today. Along with the latest monetary policy stance from the bloc area central bank. While the US will be set to release the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims.
Disappointing UK jobs data
Disappointing jobs data from the UK yesterday. The UK unemployment rate remained at 5.1%. While the average earnings index 3m/y showed a 1.8% change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. A fall from 2.1% forecast. The claimant counts change also showed a 6.7k increase in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.
Oil prices climbed higher yesterday, following the report from the the U.S. Energy Information Administration. They reported a 2.1 million-barrel increase in crude-oil supplies for the week ended April 15. Depicting a reduction in stockpiles from 6.6m reported last week. Commodity currencies have however pulled back slightly from their highs. The Australian dollar eased slightly from a 10-month high but looks set to continue its bullish run. The Canadian dollar also retraced slightly against the USD, but the downward trend on the USDCAD is still very alive.
UK retail sales (8:30 A.M GMT)
Being a primary measure of the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, this data will be closely watched. Forecast to come at -0.1%, we expect a rally on the sterling on a positive report. Later in the day, Governor Mark Carney is also due to deliver a speech titled “How the financial system can support delivery of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals, including for employment and growth, investment, and climate action,” at the United Nations.
April ECB Press Conference (12:30 P.M GMT)
Although expectations are low that the ECB would announce further easing, there is still the potential for dovish remarks from the ECB President Mario Draghi. Which will drag the euro down, hence euro bearish before April ECB Press Conference as the U.S. dollar rose against the bloc currency on Wednesday on fears of such dovish comments.
US data (12:30 P.M GMT)
By 12:30 P.M GMT, we have the US Philly Fed Manufacturing index and unemployment Claims forecast to come at 8.1 and 265k respectively. The major focus for the day will be on the Euro due to the coming ECB monetary policy announcement and ensuing April ECB press conference.
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