Crypto analysts are claiming that the imminent Ethereum Constantinople Hard Fork scheduled for Thursday is likely to see increased volatility in the prices of ETH. What can traders expect?
February 27, 2019 | AtoZ Markets - Ethereum, (ETH) like most major cryptocurrencies, has had a pretty good month as it has regained its position as the second biggest digital coin by market cap.
However, the coin has failed to sustain the upward trend and one of the reasons for the increased levels of volatility has been the anticipation of the upcoming Ethereum Constantinople hard fork.
Crypto analysts consider Ethereum price technically weak
The Ethereum Constantinople Hard Fork on the Ether blockchain is scheduled to take place at the 7,280,000th block on Thursday February 28.
Nevertheless, several crypto analysts expect Ether price volatility to spike in the coming days as its upcoming Constantinople hard fork approaches.
While this hard fork event is widely percieived as being bullish in the long-term, many analysts in the crypto shpere are in the school of thought that ETH is currently under an increased levels of technical weakness. In orther words, further losses are expected for the cryptocurrency in the near-future.
For instance, Hsaka, a popular crypto trader recently discussed ETH’s price action on Twitter, stressing that it will likely retest its range lows around $130 in the near-term, which are becoming increasingly weak.
— Hsaka (@HsakaTrades) February 26, 2019
Meanwhile, another popular crypto analyst, Chonis Trading shared his opinion on Twitter, about the potential impact imminent hard fork, stating that although ETH’s price is currently holding above its lower Bollinger Band, the upcoming hard fork will likely lead to increased volatility.
$ETH - maintaining lower BB closing candle support on a very tight 1hr chart. Still wide on higher time frames. With the #Constantinople fork “currently” scheduled for this week I will be watching #ethereum reaction to this news driven event.. #100xleverage #bybit pic.twitter.com/Ha3RsL3QOY
— Chonis Trading (@BigChonis) February 26, 2019
Ethereum Constantinople Hard Fork Can Spike up ETH Volatility
Looking at historical price data, Ethereum network is known to have a heavy price volatility right before a software upgrade.
For example, the Byzantium hard fork released on October 16, 2017 made the market so volatile that investors were forced to sell their ETH holdings which resulted in the prices to slide by a massive 20 percent.
As the chart above shows, investors held back from investing on the day of the scheduled fork amid a change to the underlying ethereum protocol because hard-forks often create an aura of uncertainty among the investor community which makes them unwilling to make any kind of investment.
Traders usually prefer to wait and watch, as the new update might not necessarily pan out the way creators would have anticipated. Regarding the next Constantinople Hard Fork, the situation becomes even more intense since the fork has been shifted earlier in January because of an error - recognized as EIP – 1283 - that was discovered in the preliminary test.
Ethereum Constantinople Hard Fork: What to expect?
The prices of ETH was seriously affected following the the 2017 hard fork volatility that it took 34 days for Ethereum to break above the sideways channel after the fork occured.
So if history repeats itself before the next scheduled Constantinople Hard Fork, it is possible to see ether prices come under intense selling pressure again.
At the moment, the crypto trade market is trying hard to gain some momentum after a 6-month bear run. Ethereum is currently trading at $139, however, if the current bearish trend continues before the Constantinople Hard Fork commences, ETH price might decline and risk dropping below the support price level of $123.
Moreover, If the Constantinople hard fork aftermath resembles that of the Byzantium fork, the price of Ethereum price is expected not to crash more than 20 percent.
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