The U.S. dollar hit an almost eight-week low on Monday due to growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would conclude its rate hike campaign soon.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) plunged to 104.84, the lowest since September 20. As of writing, it stands at 105.35 after closing at 105.22. The DXY had plummeted 1.4 percent last week, marking its sharpest weekly decline since July.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak to the Division of Research and Statistics' centennial conference before the market opens on Wednesday and at the Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference on Thursday. Market participants are eager to see if Powell maintains the dovish stance he adopted after the Fed's meeting last week.
Investors will also parse comments from other Fed officials for clues on whether they anticipate additional rates. Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson will speak on Thursday, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak on Tuesday.
"Even though last week's statement was unanimous, I do suspect that Powell's view isn't very widely shared, so I suspect we will start to see a divergence between the doves and the hawks on the FOMC," said Bipan Rai, North American head of F.X. strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday that she hoped the central bank's current target interest rate would be sufficient to bring inflation back to its two percent target. In contrast, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari warned on Monday that the U.S. central bank may need further action to curb inflation.
Key market data
Earlier this month, the Fed kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5 percent for the second consecutive meeting. It struck a neutral tone on near-term inflation risks while noting a modest slowdown in the job market and the impact of its past interest rate hikes.
The weaker-than-expected jobs growth data released on Friday bolstered expectations of a slowing U.S. economy, which could lead the Fed to maintain its current interest rates. The following key market mover will likely be next week's October consumer price inflation data.
"Next week's CPI print is going to be the best adjudicator we have on whether or not the Fed needs to hike rates again," said Rai.
According to Rai, if inflation remains high, the focus will shift to how much interest rate cuts are expected next year. Otherwise, if inflation falls sharply, there could be some dip in the dollar buying against several other currencies.
Dollar against major peers
On Monday, the euro rallied to $1.0756, the highest since September 13. It dipped to 1.0709 after closing at 1.0715.
The euro's rally against the greenback may be limited by the euro zone's economic weakness relative to the U.S. economy, according to Dane Cekov, a senior F.X. strategist at Nordea.
"You could still see a somewhat weaker dollar in the short term, but if the (euro-dollar) rally continues, it needs to get some fuel from somewhere," said Cekov.
A survey on Monday showed that the downturn in eurozone business activity had accelerated last month as demand in the dominant services industry weakened further, suggesting a growing chance of a recession.
The dollar rose to 150.21 against the Japanese yen. According to Cekov, Japanese authorities will likely intervene in the currency market or talk up the yen if it weakens to 155.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar (AUD) plunged to $0.6453 after earlier reaching a three-month high of $0.6523.
Investors are now awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision on interest rates. Most economists expect a 25 basis point hike, ending four months of policy inaction. However, markets are less convinced, with only a 63 percent chance of a hike.