Dollar edges up following soft U.S. inflation data


In Asian trading, the dollar rebounded slightly on Wednesday local time following a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report that boosted investor confidence that the Federal Reserve would soon halt its interest rate hikes.

As of writing, the dollar index (.DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, has increased to 104.11 after plunging to a two-month low of 103.98 on Tuesday.

The consumer price index in October showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percent, below economists' expectations of 3.3 percent. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since March 2021, indicating that inflation is moderating.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, investors now predict a 50 percent probability of a rate cut in May 2024.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, thought the market reaction was large for a modest downturn result.

"It makes sense for the markets to price out further Fed hikes at the margins, but to practically price them out entirely and double down on expectations for cuts next year is very bold," he said, as quoted by CNBC.

The sell-off in the dollar triggered a surge in the value of many other currencies. The Australian dollar experienced the most significant gains against the weakening dollar. It surged by two percent overnight and was holding steady at $0.6494 at the time of writing.

As of writing, the euro and pound have slightly dipped after a strong performance. The euro settled around $1.0869 after touching its highest since August the previous day, while the pound stood at $1.2469, down 0.20 percent.

The New Zealand dollar gained 0.31 percent to 0.6025 after closing at 0.6007.

The greenback's overnight fall saw some relief for the languishing yen, which eased off Monday's fresh one-year low of 151.92.

Yield, commodities

As the dollar experienced its biggest sell-off in the forex market in a year, U.S. Treasury yields tumbled, experiencing their worst day in eight months. The two-year Treasury yield plunged by over 22 basis points on Tuesday, settling at 4.84 percent in early Tokyo trade on Wednesday.

The 10-year yield also experienced a significant decline, falling 19 basis points overnight to reach an almost two-month low of 4.43 percent. This dip pushed yields below the crucial support level of 4.5 percent.

Although the greenback dipped, gold prices, in contrast, rose by one percent on Tuesday and continued to climb on Wednesday. Spot gold was trading at $1,967.55 per ounce by 12:49 AM ET, on track for its best day since October 27. U.S. gold futures were trading around $1,971.10 after closing at $1,966.5 on Tuesday.

"CPI data came in significantly weaker than expected, which is quite supportive for precious metals. We are expecting a significant deterioration in the data over the course of the fourth quarter, which should weaken the dollar and support gold," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, as quoted by Reuters.

Spot silver prices surged to $23.50 per ounce, marking the best session in a month. Commerzbank also revised its end-of-2024 price forecast for silver downward from $30 per ounce to $29 per ounce.

However, the bank maintains a bullish outlook on silver's performance relative to gold. This is supported by the anticipated growth in industrial demand for silver and the ongoing shift towards a climate-neutral economy, where silver is expected to play a crucial role.