21 July, AtoZForex – Yesterday we saw positive news for the GBP in the UK morning session. We saw USDCAD on the downside after the release of the Crude Oil inventories news release. The USDCAD recovered some of its lost ground in the US session. Overnight in the Asian session the bears seem to be in control on the USDCAD. There were also meetings between the two M’s “May and Merkel” and the comments by the BoE that after Brexit the UK economy is in a healthy state. Hence, the Daily Forex Trading Tips of today, indicates a continued bullish movement on the GBP. At the time of writing, 07:15am BST, today we have five high impact news, currencies affected GBP, EUR and USD.
High impact news – Daily Forex Trading Tips
# 1 UK – at 9:30am BST
Retail Sales – Previous: + 0.9% ; Forecast: -0.4%; Currency affected: GBP
Forex Trading Tips – previous two months we have seen positive figures greater than what was forecast, however, this month the figure is forecast as being negative. If the Retail sales actual figure is greater than forecast we could see further upside for the GBP.
#2 EU – at 12:45pm BST
Minimum Bid rate – Previous -0%; Forecast – 0%; Currency affected: EUR
Forex Trading Tips – Last three previous announcements have shown no change from 0% and probability of it remaining the same is high. If the actual is greater than the forecast then it is good for the EUR and most expected increase would be +0.05%
#3 EU – at 1:30pm BST
ECB Press Conference
Forex Trading Tips – It will be the first ECB press conference after Brexit and if the markets assess that there is a dovish tone of the press release then we can see further downside to the EUR.
#4 USA – at 1:30pm BST
Philly Manufacturing Index: Previous -4.7; Forecast – 5.1;
Forex Trading Tips – Rating of the relative level of the general business conditions by 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. Anything positive above zero (0) means improving conditions. If we see the Actual at the forecast level of 5.1 or above, expect USD to strengthen. However, this may be dampened if the Unemployment Claims are greater than forecast and see a mixed reaction possible down side on the USD.
#5 USA – @ 1:30pm BST
Unemployment Claims: Previous 254k; Forecast – 271k;
Forex Trading Tips – An important signal for the overall health of the US economy. If Actual is less than the forecast figure of 271k expect USD to surge if at same time the Philly Manufacturing Index is positive too.
Currency Pairs – Daily Forex Trading Tips
#6 EURUSD trading tip
Awaiting the key speech from ECB later this afternoon and the US news releases at the same time, we may see a mixed reaction on the EUR.
Forex trading tips – Currently the price is between the 50 hourly and 200 hourly moving averages. A break below the 1.1015 level would be to take bearish position and a break above the 1.1070 level expect bullish movement.
#7 GBPUSD trading tip
UK PM visited Berlin yesterday and met the German Chancellor, a meeting that was cordial and re-strengthening of the ties between UK and Germany. Positive comments from BoE about the UK economy will strength the GBP and expect further upside move on the GBP.
Forex Trading Tips – Intraday bullish outlook. This may reverse today on a more hawkish stance by the ECB and positive results on the news from US mentioned above.
#8 AUDUSD trading tip
Currently the price is between the 50 hourly and 200 hourly moving averages
Forex Trading Tips – Intraday further upside and expect resistance at 0.7530 ; 0.7555 and between 0.7605-0.7900 levels.
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