Weekly CrowdTrading outlook


It’s going to be a busy week for online traders, according to the experts at Trade360, the world’s only online trading platform following Crowd Trading insights.

Weekly CrowdTrading outlook covers the instability created by the FED, stress based on the European refugee crisis, and rising milk prices boosting AUD and NZD.

The US dollar remains under stress

With inflation missing in action in in the American economy, and a below-par NFP report, the longed-for rate rise from the Fed is looking less and less likely, harming the Dollar.

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Rising Milk prices support AUD & NZD

The AUD/USD had experienced positive movement by the end of last week's trading, rising by 76 pips (1.05%), to a rate of $0.7336.

With dairy prices up over 10%, manufacturing sentiment climbing steadily and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still biding its time regarding interest rates, AUD and NZD could stay strong.

Keep an eye on the New Zealand CPI for Q3, released on Thursday at 21.45GMT. Inflation is likely to be down to as low as 0.2% and the NZD could suffer if it’s any lower.

-   NZDUSD 0.6760 resistance

-   AUDUSD 0.7260 support & 0.7465 resistance

European Refugee Crisis may push ZEW confidence down 

The EUR/USD climbed 82 pips, raising the value by 0.73%, to an exchange rate of $1.1358.

On Tuesday, watch out for the key German ZEW Economic Sentiment October at 09.00 GMT. The European refugee crisis may play its part in pushing down confidence to below 66, from 67.5.

However, looking at the crowd insights, the more the USD is put under pressure the more traders long EURUSD.

-   EURUSD 1.1450 resistance

GBP/USD, however, lost value on Friday. The pair dropped 0.17%, (26 pips) ending the day at $1.5322.

With UK inflation running at zero, and not expected to rise to higher than 0.2% when September’s CPI is released on Tuesday, October 13 at 0830 GMT, the Pound’s generally strong form against the Dollar may have run its course, at least for the time being.

-   GBPUSD May head back towards 1.5000

Watch the Chinese CPI data

The China Crisis seems to have abated for now, with dubious data and vast stock volatility away from the headlines.

Chinese trade data for September should be released on Tuesday. Analysts will be scrutinising the report for clues about the true extent of industrial inactivity, falling demand for Chinese finished goods and a flailing domestic market.  Experts expect exports to have fallen by 6% and imports by 16%.

Keep a close eye on the China CPI on Wednesday, Oct 14th, 01.30 GMT. Y/Y Inflation is expected to have dropped to 1.8% for September, from 2.0% in August.

All US indices saw positive movement on Friday. The DOW was up 0.20% to 17,084.49, the NASDAQ enjoyed a 0.41 increase, closing at 4,830.47 and the S&P 500 was up 0.07%, closing at 2,014.89.

Poor economic data and the Fed’s reluctance to raise rates explain the rally, but the indices are all nearing significant technical levels, and the Bullish mood may end quickly.

Keep an eye on Q3 earnings this week from some of the world’s top companies: Intel, Procter & Gamble (Tuesday), Bank of America, News Corp and Netflix (Wednesday); Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group (Thursday) and General Electric (Friday).

Other big moments for the American economy include US Retail Sales for September, at 12.30 GMT on Wednesday. The index should be up slightly, by one or two tenths of a percent. There’s also the US CPI coming out on Thursday at 12.30 GMT. Prices are likely to be down 0.2% M/M and Y/Y. On Friday at 14.00 GMT, the University of Michigan Sentiment Index for October will be released and could reach 89.0, giving hope to all those awaiting the rate hike.

OPEC made US Shale uneconomical

Crude oilCrude Oil closed with mixed results: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed Friday up 0.40%, at $49.63 a barrel.

Brent Oil however, slipped by 0.75% to $52.65 a barrel.

Seasonal factors played a part in this, however, and the bigger picture is all about OPEC’s successes in making US Shale uneconomical for the time being. Demand will grow by around 1.5m barrels per day, while the deteriorating and unpredictable situation in the Middle East will only push prices still higher in the short term.

-   Crude Oil (WTI) $50 resistance

The struggling Dollar also resulted in a good week for gold. A COMEX ounce rose 1.01% on Friday, closing the week at $1,155.90. Gold-Spot was also buoyant, up 1.54% to $1,156.53 an ounce.

-   Gold (XAUUSD) $1,174 resistance

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