Credit Suisse, OCBC Bank and Commerzbank Long EURUSD


Credit Suisse, OCBC Bank and Commerzbank Long EURUSD views have started to show themselves in the market. EURUSD has broken above 1.1400 benchmark but has not been able to sustain itself at this level.

EURUSD Chart 1: EURUSD 1.1380 previous resistance turning into support

Credit Suisse: we have stood on the sidelines on EURUSD since 8 April

  • EURUSD bullish move is based on USD consolidation
  • Consolidation is in line with the historical movements, however it appears that there is a break in the trend and not a pure period of consolidation
  • EURO rates sell-off started well into the USD consolidation period

Forecast & Strategy: – Credit Suisse long EURUSD

Indeed, while we still hold a 3m 1.05 target for EURUSD (based partly on our non-consensus house view that the Fed will hike in September), we are not adding to existing short EUR positions (now minimal in delta terms) in our model portfolio until we have a clearer view on how these factors will play out. Effectively, we have stood on the sidelines on EURUSD since 8 April – it is still too early to re-engage, in our view,” the bank commented.

OCBC Bank: Mario Draghi’s scheduled speech later in the day could be a EURO catalyst

OCBC Bank’s FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng commented:

  • softer than expected Q1 German GDP readings on Wednesday with broader EZ readings falling in line with prior expectations shrug off Euro
  • EURUSD may eye the 1.1400 ceiling in the interim
  • Mario Draghi’s scheduled speech later in the day could be a catalyst

Commerzbank: EURUSD could be aiming the key resistance of the 1.1513/34 February high

Commerzbank’s Head of FICC Technical Analysis Karen Jones noted:

  • Risks are building for a break above 1.1392
  • A deeper upward retracement to the key resistance of the 1.1513/34 February high and 50% retracement could be expected

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