Cameron at EU summit to avoid a Brexit

18 February, Lagos – Will Cameron to be able to avoid a Brexit? As the European Union summit is about to commence, there is a positive sentiment that a deal for UK’s stay in the Union will be reached. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker clarified that an accord is near, even though it is not yet a done deal.

Looming uncertainty

However, EU President Donald Tusk cautioned that its not yet a certainty, stating in an invitation letter to leaders posted on the EU Council website that: “There is still no guarantee that we will reach an agreement. We differ on some political issues and I am fully aware that it will be difficult to overcome them.”

One of the main points of disagreement remains UK’s insistence on the authority to curtail social benefits for workers from other EU countries. This will not go down well with eastern European leaders likely to drive a hard bargain at the summit. The European leaders would fear that allowing Britain this power could sprout similar action from other European Union members. Hence, to avoid a Brexit a lot more needs to done on the British side.

Markets react

As uncertainty continues to loom over a potential Brexit, markets have already started reacting to the prospect. A Bloomberg gauge of the pound’s volatility against the euro jumped Thursday to the highest level since 2011. The pound weakened since the beginning of 2016 against its entire Group of 10 peers, as concerns of a vote to leave the world’s largest trading bloc may spark a business exodus from the U.K. and cramp economic growth.

40 percent chance of Brexit?

Assigning the possibility of a Brexit to as much as 40 percent; Pacific Investment Management Co., said that “uncertainty over the result is likely to weigh on U.K. markets for a good few months yet.”

So far, polls on whether or not a Brexit will occur has been inconclusive. Although most telephone polls like that held by an ICM online poll published on Wednesday, showed “remain” ahead by 43 percent to 39 percent, while 18 percent of voters remain undecided.

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