Brexit effect is pending for the Pound


Here is the GBPUSD fundamental analysis for 21 October after parliament rushes through the deal of Brexit, which may force to leave the EU on October 31.

October 21, 2019, | AtoZ MarketsThis seems like the forex market ignored the uncertainty of the United Kingdom’s (UK) exit from the European Union (EU). The incoming European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde seems worried about the global economic crisis. And so they gathered at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank meetings.

GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis – 21 October 2019

The alliance between the UK & the EU is unlikely to respond instantly but rather wait for signs of progress in parliament. The government pulled a Meaningful Vote on Saturday following the Letwin amendment, which may be unable to introduce again. The government introduces a more-detailed legislation 0 the Withdrawal Act Bill (WAB) on Tuesday. The good news for the market is that Johnson would be on the edge of gathering a majority for the deal. If the parliament rushes through the deal, the EU will not grant any extension, and the UK will be forced to leave the EU on October 31, resulting in a Hard BREXIT. Another positive news for the Pound is that the labor is seeking new alliances, including with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party.

However, the yearly CPI of the UK has remained unchanged for September. But retail sales have been increased from -0.3% to 0.0%.

CPI of the UK

The US Dollar remained looser against the British Pound along with the Euro & Australian Dollar. The main logic behind the weakness of the dollar is the weak Retail Sales data of last week and rising views for the Federal Reserve to cut rates next week.

Personal consumption, which comprises approximately 70% of the US GDP, has proved remarkably strong under the uncertain economic condition and the blackening economic outlook overseas. The manufacturing sector is struggling for economic slowdown but currently showing minimal signs of picking up. The growing signs of a gradual fall in consumer spending indicate that the economy is losing the most significant offset to the weakness in manufacturing and business investment. However, it has gained another.

US Retail Sales

This week’s market will see the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders, which is expected to decline from 0.5% to -0.2%. However, the Flash manufacturing PMI is also expected to decline from 51.1 to 51.0.

As of the current scenario, the GBPUSD price mostly depended on the geopolitical movement of the BREXIT and FED’s reaction to the upcoming recession. There is a possibility of volatility and spikes in the market. However, 1.3300 will a significant level for the GBPUSD for this week.

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