BoC March Monetary Policy Meeting Forecast

BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz is likely to be cautious in today’s monetary policy meeting after Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum. Should we expect an unchanged interest rate? Find out on the BoC March Monetary Policy Meeting Forecast

7 March, Swissquote – Global equities remain under pressure on Wednesday despite positive developments in the Korean peninsula, which suggests that market participants are more focus on the formalization of Trump new trade tariffs. The Nikkei ended the session down 0.77%, Hong Kong Hang Seng was off 1.03%, while Singapore’s STI fell 2.03%.

South Korea and North Korea are planning a meeting at the end of April. The news came on the back of the announcement that Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, was willing to give up on its nuclear programme, should the safety of the regime will be guaranteed. Maybe the inconsistency and unpredictability of Kim Jong Un are keeping investors on their toes.

Trade war weighs on markets 

In the US, the resignation of Gary Cohn as director of National Economic Council suggests that Trump is actually moving forward with its trade war. Therefore, the market remains broadly in the risk-off mode as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc extended gains against the greenback.

The former was up 0.50%, while the latter rose 0.35%. For now, it is hard to know where to stand, as there is a lot of moving pieces on the political side. On the other side of the Atlantic, the single currency kept grinding higher against the US dollar, with the most traded currency pair hitting 1.2434 during the European morning. We remain positive on the currency pair with the 1.2550 as next target.

BoC March Monetary Policy Meeting Forecast

In the context of growing tensions with its first commercial partner, fighting on the front of NAFTA’s new terms and conditions and recently adding up tariffs on aluminum (10%) and steel (25%), Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz faces the unique choice of maintaining monetary policy unchanged during tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting in Wellington, Ottawa.

Currently given at 1.25%, BoC’s lending rate benchmark is not expected to rise until the second half of 2018 (last hike in January 16th, 2018).

Though market volatility remained lively in previous days, Canadian S&P/TSX index remained stable, valued at 15’545 (+1.05% since Monday, March 2nd 2018), supported by major sectors and particularly Health Care, Materials, Energy and Financials while the only laggard remained Industrials, strongly impacted by Bombardier (-4.80%) and Canada National Railway (-1.83%) underperformance.

Materials stocks outperform broader market due to weaker USD (Gold and Silver rise) backed by decreasing fears of trade wars. On the currency side, however, we see further weakness emanating from CAD against major currencies. USD/CAD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD trade at 1.2929 (+5.41%), 1.6063 (+4.67%) and 1.7962 (+2.65%) since February 1st, 2018.


This article BoC March Monetary Policy Meeting Forecast was written by Arnaud Masset & Vincent Mivelaz, analysts at Swissquote. While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and Swissquote Bank and its subsidiaries can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein.

This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments.

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