An attempt to break into the 8,000s zone failed again as BTC drops to the lower 7,000s. The following Bitcoin price prediction is based on the Elliott wave theory.
December 10, 2019 | AtoZ Markets – The cryptocurrency market has dropped below the $200 billion (in market capitalization) mark according to the data on Coinmarketcap. Bitcoin has shed nearly 3% in the last 24 hours (at the time of writing). The premier crypto is now close to testing the $7,150 intraday support level before the $6,600 low. The recovery from $6,600 lacks the required momentum to push the market away from the bearish zone. The possibility of a dip to the $5,500-6,000 now seems to be bigger.
Hedge fund manager: BTC will hit $20,000-$50,000 after halving
The market is in a bearish phase quite alright. Despite this, some crypto bulls still believe that BTC price will rise to an astronomical level citing the 2020 halving as the trigger. One of the proponents of this idea is Charles Hwang who is a managing member Lightning Capital – a hedge fund firm. Charles has predicted that at the end of the May 2020 block reward halving, Bitcoin should be racing toward $20,000 to $50,000. In a Medium post he titled ‘The bitcoin squeeze’ he likened Bitcoin halving to the 1973/74 Oil embargo. He argued that the historical response of Bitcoin price to reward halving follows a predictable manner. He observed that the halving events have not been properly priced into the market. Therefore this results in ”a large bull run followed by a bear market.”. He, therefore, agrees that BTC price might overshoot $50,000-$100,000 but the next bearish phase should be supported at $20,000.
Bitcoin price prediction: Elliott wave perspective
From a technical perspective, Charles’ prediction is not out of line. The rally from $3,100 low (December 2018) to $13,900 (June 2019) took the market out of the 2018 bearish phase. Therefore the current dip is expected to be limited above the $3,100 low. In addition, the current dip which started in late June is completing a clear corrective pattern. We have been looking at this price development in the previous updates. However, before the bullish trend resumes, we will most likely see BTC price hit $5,000-$6,000 or even below at $4,500 before we could see genuine bullish efforts.
In the last update, we used the chart below. A double zigzag corrective pattern from $13,900 is in the final stages. However, one more last dip should happen before the bullish trend takes off again. Meanwhile, a trigger is needed. Will that be the reward halving?
The fall from $10,500 is completing an impulse wave with the 4th wave emerging into a triangle pattern from $6,600. If the price eventually breaks below, we will see a hit of the $5,000-$6,000 support zone.