Cryptocurrencies struggle to recover after a very bearish November. The following Bitcoin price prediction is purely a technical analysis based on the Elliott wave theory.
December 05, 2019 | AtoZ Markets – The cryptocurrency market has had another setback. BTC which had earlier surged to $7,900 on Wednesday quickly plunged to $7,150 before the day ended. However, there has been a bit of recovery on Thursday but the move lacks the required momentum. After BTC plunged to $6,600 to hit its lowest since May, there have been predictions from crypto bulls and bears alike that the fall might deepen to $4,500-5,000 zone. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $7,390.
The crypto market capitalization has dropped about 50% in the second half of 2019. This is around $180 billion in value. The market, currently valued at $198 billion, is still $65 billion bigger since January 2019. However, crypto bulls will still be disappointed that the market didn’t continue the 2019 H1 surge that almost tripled its value in 6 months. Bitcoin still holds 67% of the entire market share and remains the biggest indicator of the general direction of the market. With 98% gain, it still remains 2019’s biggest performer after Binance Coin (BNB) among the top 10 coins listed on Coinmarketcap.
Performance summary of the top 10 coins
Despite the current minor surge, cryptos are in losses so far in the first week of December. BSV, LTC, Stellar and Ripple are the worst hit with 11%, 6.5%, 4.8% and 4.6% respectively while BTC dropped 3%. In addition, there has been an average of 23% sell-off among the top 10 coins in the last month. Thanks to a bullish end of October, average losses in the last quarter is much less. In the last 365 days, however, only BSV, BCH and BTC recorded significant gains with 47%, 22% and 79% gains respectively. Ethereum had a minuscule 3% while the rest in the top 10 have significant losses led by Stellar, EOS, XRP and surprisingly LTC with 49%, 38%, 30% and 28% respectively.
In 2019 YTD, the performance is a bit better with BNB and Bitcoin leading the way with 152% and 98% respectively. In fact, Litecoin has recorded a 48% gain so far in 2019. At an average, the top 10 coins have gained 27% in 2019 YTD. However, if prices plunge further in December, these numbers will reduce significantly.
Bitcoin price prediction: Elliott wave analysis
From the perspective of the Elliott wave theory, the Bitcoin price has the propensity to fall further. The price seems to be attracted to the $5,000-6,000 support zone. BTC price is currently at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2018 – to- June 2019 bullish trend. Price inability to follow up the quick recovery to $10,500 in late October has driven another ‘pump’ sentiment story. In the last update, we used the chart below (Charting tools from TradingView).
A double zigzag bearish correction from the $13,900 ensues and the 78.6% Fib-retracement level will be eyed by the bears after breaching 61.8%. There has been a minor recovery to $7,500 although corrective as the new chart below shows.
The minor recovery from $6,600 might continue to 8,000-8,500 (38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement of the $10,500 to $6,600 decline) and perhaps hit the upper boundary line of the falling channel. However, unless a fast surge happens above $9,000, the price will most likely drop further to the $5,000-$6,000 attractive support zone.