Bitcoin price in a tight range: where will it breakout?

After last week surge to $6600, Bitcoin has been in a tight range between $6500-$6600. Will there be a breakout upside toward $10000 or downside toward below $6000?

Between 21st September and 2nd October, Bitcoin has moved within $6800 and $6300 range with no sight of breakout. Days after, the range has become even tighter, now between $6600 and $6500. Often times, when price is within a tight range, a big breakout follows upside or downside. More often than not, the direction of the breakout follows the direction of the immediate trend before the range move. In this scenario, we might see an upward move.

Bitcoin Price: Market optimistic with more buyers?

There is a sign of optimism among major Crypto players of recent. A hedge fund manager believed that the bearish trend is about to end for a bullish recovery. On CNBC’s ”fast money”, Spencer Bogart, a partner at Cryptocurrency and blockchain venture firm Blockchain Capital predicted the Crypto market is at the stage of bullish retracement. According to him, ‘Bitcoin is close to bottoming’ and will surpass $10000 at the end of the year, due to recent developments in the Crypto-market.

On Wednesday, retail brokerage TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD.O) said it has invested in a new Cryptocurrency exchange called ErisX in a bid to offer clients digital asset investment options beyond the popular bitcoin. On Thursday Legendary wall street billionaire Advisor Ric Edelman revealed that he has invested in Bitwise Asset management. On Friday, Yale’s CIO, David Swensen announced he has invested in two Cryptocurrency Funds – Andreesen Horowitz and Paradigm.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

In the last update, price was expected to break below 6350 to resume the bearish trend. The chart below was used.

Yesterday, the price dropped close to $6450 but couldn’t break below. The forecast in the last update is still valid until price breaks above 6650. A break above 6650 would probably lead to 6800-7700 top. Below, there is the 6450-6500 support zone which is required to technically confirm our preferred wave count. The first bearish target is 6100.

Price was reluctant to break below 6450 but rallied instead, to 6600. Price has moved within a range since the beginning of this month. The range move morphing into a triangle pattern as shown in the chart below.

Between 6800 and 6450, a triangle pattern is forming. If this pattern completes, price will have a big chance to break upside toward 7000 to complete the bullish correction from 6100. At the end, price is expected to fall further. If the current optimism in the market is real, a surge above $7400 should happen. A break above 7400 will confirm the optimism and will likely be followed by a move toward 10000. From technical perspective, a break above 7400 is not very much likely. What’s is more likely is a triangle breakout toward 7000 and a fast drop thereafter.

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