Bitcoin (BTC) closed slightly above its $19,000 support point on Tuesday, ahead of the release of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and Client Value Index (CPI) report.
The token started above $19,300 early on Tuesday morning before hitting the day’s low of $18,875. This situation resembled the traditional stock market on the same day, which fluctuated between positive and negative positions. The Dow strengthened by 0.1 percent, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 plunged by 0.65 percent and 1.04 percent, respectively.
$BTC simple
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) October 11, 2022
Price has been ranging between 19k and 20500 for 3 weeks. If you flip flop randomly during the range, while losing money unnecessarily, that means you have no patience.
Main scenario is exactly the same. 21k first, then new lows (14k-16k) pic.twitter.com/aLgRJ0Jj2e
Jim Wyckoff, a senior technical analyst at Kitco, explained that this situation would prevail as investors wait for the most updated inflation data.
“Bulls and bears continue to fight for near-term technical control amid quieter and sideways trading, with neither gaining much ground and still on a level overall near-term technical playing field,” Wyckoff said. “That suggests more sideways and choppy trading in the near term.”
BTC and the entire crypto market suffer from a heavy impact caused by the current macroeconomic situation. The September CPI, to be published on Thursday, is expected to offer a peek into the Federal Reserve’s policies in the coming months.
Earlier this month, several Fed officials signaled that the central bank would keep increasing interest rates to encourage price stability, regardless of job loss potential.
“If unemployment goes up, that’s unfortunate. If it goes up a lot, that’s really very difficult,” Charles Evans, head of Chicago Fed, said. “But price stability makes the future better.”
Most altcoins reportedly closed lower on Tuesday as well. One of the highest gains was by dYdX (DYDX), which grew by 9.07 percent to $1.47 per unit. During Tuesday’s closing, the entire crypto market valuation was at $918 billion, with BTC controlling 39.7 percent of the market.
Interesting fact worth mentioning about #BTC Halvings is that it's unclear when the upcoming Halving event will occur
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 11, 2022
Historically $BTC bottoms 517-547 days prior to the Halving event
But the next Halving may occur as soon as March 2024 and as late as May 2024#Crypto #Bitcoin
Halving potential
BTC is expected to remain within its usual range in the next few days, but a number of analysts have described this situation as a “calm before the storm." They urged investors to watch for Bitcoin halving, which had resulted in big market rallies several times in the past.
A Rekt Capital analyst said that Bitcoin usually bottomed out about 517 to 547 days before halving. The next BTC halving is projected to occur around March to May 2024, meaning that the token will hit a new low around November or December this year.
Eight Global CEO Michaël van de Poppe shared a similar opinion, saying that the current market state was similar to the situation from November 2018-February 2019.
We are into November 2018-February 2019 period, currently.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 11, 2022
Most likely 2023 will be a mark-up year towards $40,000-48,000 before a new bull season starts in 2024.
Ultimately, these prices are incredible to accumulate on for #Bitcoin.
“Most likely 2023 will be a mark-up year towards $40,000-48,000 before a new bull season starts in 2024,” the CEO said. “Ultimately, these prices are incredible to accumulate on for Bitcoin.”
BTC miners will be the most affected by the halving process, according to Blocksbridge Consulting. This stakeholder category will see a loss in profits. The current daily mining revenue per PH/s is $80 and may fall to $70 PH/s. The mining difficulty level will also change depending on the rate of BTC. At $19,500 per unit, the difficulty level is 13 percent.
Blocksbridge Consulting added, “Unless bitcoin’s price breaks the $20,000 barrier, those who employ older-generation machines or have bloated mining operations will face an even tougher time ahead.”
Heading into 2024, the price of BTC has the potential to jump to $21,000 per unit. Its new bottom, however, is predicted to range from $14,000 to $16,000.