Barclays Forex analysis & US personal income forecast


29 June, AtoZForex Barclays Capital along with SEB bank have provided us expectations for today’s major data releases and technical setups for six currency pairs. The following is US personal income forecast and Barclays Forex analysis for EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and USDCAD.

US personal income and spending forecast

The consumer spending and income sentiment is evidently strong, argues SEB, and the April data revealed that economic growth is picking up in Q2. Despite fairly low first quarter GDP, real GDP for Q2 is tracing 2.5-3%.

Looking ahead, easing in economic conditions lately suggest that real GDP growth will be robust in the H2 as well, SEB projected, adding “so while our summer rate hike forecast from the Fed is facing headwinds, a September hike is certainly a plausible alternative.”

“We expect a consensus-like 0.3% increase in income and a 0.4$ increase in consumption in May,” SEB noted.

Barclays Forex analysis

EURUSD: Barclays is bearish on the Euro and looks for resistance in the 1.1130 area to cap any upticks for a move lower towards targets near Friday’s 1.0910 lows. Following a break of the lows, swing target near 1.0840 would be opened. “Beyond there we are looking towards the 1.0710 area,” Barclays added.

USDJPY: Moving on, Barclays is bearish on the Yen and would prefer to fade upticks towards the 103.55 area. “Our targets are back to Friday’s 99.00 lows and further out towards the 94.80 area,” Barclays added.

GBPUSD: Barclays’ bearish outlook for GBPUSD was encouraged by the lowest daily close since September 1985. “We are looking for further downside towards targets near 1.3015 and then the 1.2750 area,” the investment bank added.

AUDUSD: Moving on to commodity currencies, increased volume on the prior two bearish-days helps to endorse Barclays’ bearish AUDUSD outlook. “A move below initial targets near 0.7285 would signal lower towards the 0.7145 lows,” the bank added.

NZDUSD: Barclays also stays bearish on the Kiwi and looks for a move below its initial targets at 0.6960 level. Successful break below would open the next targets towards 0.6890 and then the 0.6810 area.

USDCAD: Finishing US personal income forecast & Barclays Forex analysis, “we prefer to fade upticks towards 1.3190 and look for a move below targets near 1.2655 to signal lower towards the 1.2460 year to date lows,” Barclays finished.

Also see: New Goldman Sachs post Brexit forecasts

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