Barclays Forex analysis and US Real GDP forecast

28 April, AtoZForex, London – Following an unexpected surprise from the BoJ meeting, the strategy teams at Barclays Capital and SEB bank have analysed the market and shared the technical outlook for five currency pairs along with US Real GDP forecast. The following is US Real GDP forecast & Barclays Forex analysis for EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURCHF, EURJPY, and USDCAD.

US Real GDP forecast

Today we have Advance US GDP data release scheduled at 13:30 GMT. Against the backdrop of solid labour market, US real GDP growth has been surprisingly weak in the Q1. The Bloomberg consensus is for 0.7% quarterly growth and the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker is suggesting only 0.3% growth at an annualised rate.

“We expect 1.7% real consumption growth and 0.5% real GDP growth in Q1,” SEB bank projected.

Barclays Forex analysis


Kicking off with the Euro, Barclays is overall bearish and would prefer to fade upticks against the 1.1465 range highs. “A move below 1.1210 would confirm our bearish view towards targets near the 1.1145 range lows and then the 1.1065 area,” Barclays added. A resistance level is near 1.1335, the 21 day moving average.


Moving on, the investment bank prefers to fade bullish upticks on the Cable against the 1.4670 range highs and look for a move below 1.4300 level to confirm the next targets near 1.4005 area. “Beyond there we look to re-test the 1.3835 year to date lows,” the Barclays Forex analysis indicated.


Barclays is bullish on the cross pair and looks for a break above the initial targets near the 1.1025 March range highs to indicate further upside traction towards 1.1060 level and then the 1.1115 area.


“We are neutral in the short-term and prefer to fade upticks in range,” Barclays noted. The investment bank is looking for signs of a top formation ahead of the 128.25 range highs. “Our targets are at the 121.70 lows and then lower towards 118.75,” the strategy team added.


Finishing the US Real GDP forecast & Barclays Forex analysis, Barclays remains bearish on the Loonie and looks for further downside towards targets in the 1.2510/65 area. “Our greater targets are towards 1.2125 and then 1.2050/1.1915,” Barclays finished.

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