Bank of England’s Carney upbeat about UK economy

Slightly bullish AUDUSD remain below 0.8300 as the previous week maintained a higher lowAustralia’s Employment Change showed 15.6 change in the number of employed people during the previous month, coming close to estimates of 15.3k as Australia’s unemployment drops amid weak economy. Jobless claims in the US fell more than forecast last week, as the number of Americans who requested for unemployment benefits fell more than economists’ estimates last week, returning to a zone that’s consistent with an improving labor market. Coming at 286k from a previous reading of 309k, the decline in claims shows the elevated readings in previous weeks were likely due to firms temporarily laying-off workers because of inclement winter weather, rather than underlying weakness in the labor market. Retail Sales m/m came at -0.6% as the cold temperatures hurt U.S. retailers. The Core Retail Sales m/m was also -0.1%, depicting a fall in change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. Bank of England’s Carney upbeat about UK economy.

BOE Gov Carney’s speech was nothing short of insightful. Here are some exceprts:

  • Prices for advanced manufactured goods fell on average by around 1 per cent a year during the decade prior to the crisis. They also have dropped steadily relative to those of simpler manufactured products – by 30% over the last two decades – reflecting superior productivity growth.
  • The strong recovery of UK manufacturing over the past year – with growth stronger than at any point in the decade prior to the crisis – is a testament to the sector’s focus on continual improvement.
  • Our remit for monetary stability is simple: achieve 2% CPI inflation by setting Bank Rate, the fulcrum around which all other interest rates in the economy pivot, and, as necessary, conducting large-scale asset purchases to affect overall financial conditions. Our monetary policy framework is known as Inflation Targeting.
  • There are limits to the ability of households to delay consumption of some items, however, like food. And the psychology of instant gratification – the tendency for all of us to discount the future heavily relative to the present – mutes the willingness of households to wait for lower prices. It’s fair to say that thus far there’s no evidence as yet of delayed gratification taking hold in the UK.

UK consumption Source-

Canada’s Employment Change is due by 12:30 pm GMT today. The labor market was bolstered part-time job gains in January, as about 35.4k new positions were added. Beating the then forecast of a 4,700 rise. As part time workers are having a hard time finding full time jobs, analysts expect job figures to drop in months to come, as well as falling oil prices having a negative effect on the economy, being largely oil dependent. This month, jobs in Canada are expected to have increased by 21,300, while unemployment rate is forecast to be 6.7%, rising from last month’s 6.6% reading which has been consistent for the last three months.

US Producer Price index declined 0.8%, the biggest dip in over 5 years, attributed to falling energy prices. As oil prices seems to be stabilizing, the PPI is expected to rise by 0.2%. We expect a further negative reading here to weight on the dollar. MPC Member Haldane Speaks at the Macro Financial Modeling meeting 2015, in New York. Some insights here would be necessary to understand his opinion on the current economic situation.

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