What can traders expect from the crypto and Forex market this week? NordFX expert has provided this April 20-24 forex and cryptocurrency forecast to guide you through the week.
20 April 2020 | NordFX – In the last four weeks, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US has reached 2.2 billion. By comparison, the figures have been stuck at a level of around 930,000 for the past few years. In other words, unemployment has increased 23 times! The number of people employed in the United States is more than 15 million, so the loss of employment created for the COVID-19 crisis is approaching 15% with all types of employment.
EURUSD Price Outlook
Major major banks, such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, have revised their forecasts, and as they expect, the declining figure of the US economy can reach 40%. And James Boulard, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, says every third American in the United States will soon become unemployed.
But the situation in Europe is not very good, and that has kept the EUR / USD pair from volatility. Dollars also help the US administration and the US Federal Reserve boost the US economy. As a result, the highest volatility rate last week was less than 180 points, which is currently called flat-e. In terms of the final change in prices, the figure is further down: The pair has fallen just 70 points in five days, ending the trading period at 1.0870;
GBPUSD Price Outlook
The British currency is also displaying “peace of the cemetery”, even as both the IMF and their domestic forecasts predict that Britain’s economy is in the grip of being one of the world’s worst-hit economies, with GDP declining to reach 35 percent in the second quarter. Could For three consecutive weeks, the GBP / USD pair has repeatedly returned to 1.2500. According to some experts, now, when investors’ attention is focused on the S & P500 and the dollar, after a huge fall in the second half of March and some subsequent corrections, the pound has gained some rest.
As predicted by the H4 graphics analysis, the pound rose at the beginning of the week, reached a height of 1.2650, then turned around and sank into the Horizon of 1.2400. The final tune was heard around the three-week Pivot Point 1.2500;
60% of the experts opted for the weakening of the dollar last week and the pair fell to the $ 107.00 mark. This prediction is 100% accurate: The pair reached their goal on Wednesday, April 15th, after which they turn around and pass through the narrow channel 107.15-108.05, ending their five-day stay in the center, The level was 107.60;
Cryptocurrency forecast – The vicious cycle
Last week, the number of those addresses reached the two-year maximum, where more than 1000 BTC was stored. Experts at the GlassNode company say cryptocurrency holders have been actively collecting various positions over the past two weeks to estimate the main coin’s price to be half. According to them, many investors have jumped on Bitcoin at least twice. However, analysts at GlassNode warn that it would not be fair to trust such a forecast as the evolving situation due to COVID-19 is changing daily.
Moreover, the vicious cycle of cryptocurrency has become much more active in front of guests. The FBI has even compiled a list of the most common frauds, including blackmailing intimidating personal data and collecting donations to combat the Coronavirus.
Interestingly, despite the increasing number of transactions in the vicious cycle of cryptocurrency, their returns have also decreased. According to Chainalysis, in early April, the amount of money spent on vicious cycles was a little over $ 400 thousand, which was double that of January.
BTC Bulls and Bears
As we mentioned in our previous forecast, we mentioned that, starting on March 20, the major cryptocurrency is failing to keep its foot above the $ 7,000 level. Last week was no exception. The war between upward (bull) and low (bear) varies, with success varying, leaving the main cryptocurrency at $ 6,550-7,180. In terms of the total capital of the cryptocurrency, that has not changed much in the last one week, and it has grossed around $ 200 billion. Crypto Fear and Grid Index has not changed either. Stopping at 15 out of a possible 100, this indicates that the market is now experiencing a scare.
Top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP / USD), Litcoin (LTC / USD) and Ethereum (ETH / USD), naturally followed the rise of major cryptocurrencies. Ethereum was slightly different, showing a 6.5% increase over the seven-day trading period.
April 13 – 17 Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast
Combining the forecasts of next week’s forecasts, the opinions of multiple analysts, as well as the forecasts based on multiple methods of technical and graphics analysis, we can say the following:
What to Expect From EURUSD
Although the expectations of the mid-term market may seem bleak, there are positive effects on the short-term plan to revive the US economy, which President Donald Trump announced. The United States has also helped reduce the rate of coronary virus transmission. Some investors, looking at the future with optimistic macroeconomic data and forecasts, look to China as an example, where 100% of large companies and about 80% of small companies have already begun.
Right now, 60% of experts, who support 65% of the H4 and D1 indices, are expecting the dollar to strengthen and the pair to fall to 1.0750. The next target is a low of 1.0635. The remaining 40% of analysts are still skeptical about the dollar, expecting the pair to rise to at least 1.1000, and then, maybe, another 100 points.
Some important events in the coming weeks are the application for business activities in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the United States for unemployment benefits. All of this data is set to be released next Thursday, April 23rd. The pace of the order of sustainable goods in the United States, which we will see next Friday, April 24th, may also affect local trends;
British Pound Expectations
Next Thursday, April 23rd, not only will business data for Germany and the Eurozone be published, but the UK will be. In addition, unemployment data will be published next Tuesday, April 21st, and the UK Consumer Price Index will be published next Wednesday, April 22nd.
As stated above, according to forecasts, this country may be one of the most affected countries by Corona, and the unemployment figure here may reach a comparable figure with the United States. The political and economic risks associated with Brexit have not gone unnoticed, leaving many unresolved issues. However, investors are hoping that the final separation with the EU will be postponed for a longer period or, at least in this current situation, that the Islanders will be able to trade with Europe on a slightly better terms.
Under these uncertainties, analysts’ forecasts for next week and month are equally uncertain: 15% of them favor the pair’s growth, 25% favor a fall, and the remaining 60% shake their empty shoulders. The H4 index also looks neutral, where 75% of the D1 oscillators and 60% of the trend indicators are green.
In terms of graphics analysis, the picture is a bit different here: at H4 and D1, the pair first draws a fall in resolutions of 1.2335 and 1.2200, and then returns to the levels of 1.2500 and 1.2650, respectively;
USDJPY May Fall to the Horizon of 105.80
The area of 107.00 for the yen has become a significant resort / resistance level for months and even years. The pair have been traveling around for the last few days. A large proportion of analysts (70%) predicted that the pair would try to break this level down from the bottom and, if successful, fall to the Horizon of 105.80. His next goals are 105.00 and 104.40.
People opposed to such progress (they are 30%) think that after all the dramatic events that took place throughout February-March, the yen has returned to Allende in 107.60-110.00, where it will remain for the next few weeks. The nearest resistance is 108.40.
The two timestamps are indicative of a short-term opening, but 15% of the oscillators are already signaling that the pair has just sold out;
USDJPY Fundamental Highlights
Head of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz told Bloomberg TV in an interview that Bitcoin’s time has come. With less than a month left to go, half of the price for which investors should be prepared for a drastic change in the price of this major cryptocurrency, and if optimistic conditions like the announcement of a reward for miners are implemented, now would be the right time to buy Bitcoin. “If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s capital will rise several times before its rates are reduced by half,” the billionaire believes.
Talking about the growing popularity of digital assets, Mike Novogratz shows China as an example. But what will happen to Bitcoin when the digital yuan comes along, along with the paper yuan? There is a possibility that investors, mainly Chinese, will pull off a significant amount of investment. So, in spite of major cryptocurrency expectations, not everything will be as free.
At the same time, US authorities, whose goal is to restore the securities market, could be a hindrance to Bitcoin’s growth. “The United States is trying to restructure its economy, but the process can be delayed due to extreme and many other important situations, including the depreciation of the dollar. Due to the support of the legal currency market, Bitcoin has not received the backing of investors, “said Dan Topier, a money investor. According to him, the drop in 20% of bitcoin in March, where there was a single case of a 50% reduction, shows the correlation between digital assets and security. Communication of major coins with gold and the dollar is gradually decreasing.
Experts Now Expect the BTC Price to Fall to $5,700-6,000
Returning to the weekly forecast and the possibility of overcoming the $ 7,000 resistance to the BTC / USD pair, we note that 60% of the experts have advocated for the pair to grow in the $ 7,200-7,800 area. Interestingly, unlike Mike Novogratz, none of the analysts expected the major cryptocurrency to be able to increase manifolds as a result of its price being cut in half. Even the most optimistic forecasts have raised $ 9,000 in great distress, and 35% of experts now expect the price to fall to the $ 5,700-6,000 level.
This cryptocurrency and forex forecast should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. If you want to start trading on a demo account, visit NordFX Analytical Group for more information.