ADP NFP forecast, New Zealand unemployment falls


3 February, AtoZForex.com, Lagos – The AUDNZD pair was one of the biggest movers in early trading hours, thanks to the negative sentiment weighing on the Aussie and the positive sentiment for the kiwi after the New Zealand unemployment rate came much better than expected. The AUDNZD pair has been in a downtrend all week, and has extended its fall, loosing about 100 pips today already.

The day is packed with key fundamentals from the US and UK, with released Australian and New Zealand reports already moving the markets.

Australia trade balance and building approval

Building approvals m/m released earlier today showed a 9.2% change in the number of new building approvals issued. While the trade balance showed a 3.54b deficit in the value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. The sentiment on the Aussie has been weighed down by the recent move of the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold rate at 2.0%. The bank clarified that persistent low inflation could open the door to further easing, in a bid to support demand. They maintained their economic forecast, although acknowledging the dominant risk of global turmoil and a potential for a contagious effect on the Australian economy. However, the RBA monetary policy statement to be released on Friday will shed more light on the central bank’s mindset.

New Zealand unemployment at 7 year low

New Zealand unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since March 2009, coming in at 5.3%, much lower that the 6.1% expected. Although it is worth noting that the Labour force participation rate falls for a third consecutive quarter. The employment change also showed 0.9% change, while the annual wage inflation came at the lowest since March 2010. The NZD is likely to remain strong in the short-term, while maintaining the downtrend on the AUDNZD pair.

UK services PMI (9:30 A.M GMT)

The purchasing managers survey in the services industry is expected to come at 55.4, close to 55.5 recorded last month. The sterling has found renewed strength this week as the Manufacturing PMI showed a positive reading of Monday. However, the construction PMI disappointed yesterday, coming at 55.0. A positive services PMI data could now help strengthen the sterling further.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1:15 P.M GMT)

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast to come at 193k, a potential drop from 257k recorded last month. Later in the day, we also have the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and crude oil inventories data due. The USD has been mixed lately. A likely decider of the dollar fate is the NFP report on Friday.

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