How will the markets move today? This 9 February Market Moving Fundamental Events analysis from HotForex reveals the key market drivers. Dig in!
9 February, HotForex – 10-year Bund yields are oscillating around the 0.76% mark in opening trade, little changed from yesterday, the 2-year Schatz yield is steady at -0.56%, and while at the short end peripherals are outperforming, at the long end spreads are little changed.
European Market Outlook
With the stock correction ongoing there remains hope that it will prompt a rethink at central banks, although the BoE’s hawkish statement yesterday highlighted that this may not be the case and officials elsewhere have so far also remained pretty calm. UK100 and CAC 40 futures are in the red after a negative session in Asia, where the Nikkei closed down more than 2%, but GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures. Stocks continued to sell off in Asia after Wall Street plunged.
China’s push for deleveraging and broader concerns about rising interest rates has seen markets correcting more than 10% so far with no real sign of intervention from authorities.
The dollar has been trading mixed, losing ground to the euro, sterling, among other currencies, while gaining on the yen and Australian dollar. USDJPY clocked a four-day low of 108.49 in the early Tokyo session before rebounding above 109.0, dropping amid a phase of yen buying after the Dow clocked a 4%-plus closing loss on Wall Street, before rebounding.
The marked widening in the U.S. 10-year Treasury over JGB yield spread this week has gotten a mention in market narratives as being behind the rebound in USDJPY, although the pair remains nearly 1% down on the week. The U.S. Senate passed the budget and stopgap funding bill, although too late to prevent a government shutdown, which, assuming the House follows suits and passes the bill before midday, will make the shutdown a very short-lived affair.
The episode didn’t appear to have had much bearing on the dollar. Sterling, which corrected sharply following its post-BoE gains of yesterday, rallied after remarks by MPC member Broadbent in a BBC radio interview earlier, where he said that a couple of 25 bp rate hikes this year wouldn’t be a great shock to the economy. Cable hit an intraday high of 1.3978 but has remained well off the post-BoE peak at 1.4067.
AUDUSD hit a six-week low at 0.7759 following the release of the RBA’s latest SOMP, which took aim at the Australian dollar while trimming employment forecasts.
Main Macro 9 February Market Moving Fundamental Events
- UK Manufacturing Production – Production data for December anticipated at 0.9% m/m decline in the industrial output reading after a 0.4% gain in the month prior, and a 0.3% gain in the narrower manufacturing production measure, which is seen a better gauge of underlying production trends, after an outsized 2.5% m/m in the month prior.
- UK Goods Trade Balance – is expected to narrow to £-11.6B bln in December from £-12.2 bln in November.
- Canadian Employment Change – expected to show a 20.0k gain after the 64.8k surge in December and 81.2k rise in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.8%. Wages will again be in the spotlight, with the average hourly wage projected to accelerate to 3.6% y/y from 2.7% y/y in December.
This article about 9 February Market Moving Fundamental Events was written by Andria Pichidi, Market Analyst at HotForex. The provided article is a general marketing communication for information purposes only. It does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains an investment advice or an investment recommendation. It also does not contain a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
All information provided gathered from reputable sources. Any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication.