Examine the 9 February AUDUSD Technical Forecast from GKFX to see how the AUDUSD pair trades after RBA SOMP release.
9 February, GKFX – AUDUSD fell from 0.7792 (session high) to 0.7771 (100-day MA) even though the Reserve Bank of Australia trimmed the near-term jobless rate forecasts.
RBA trimmed near-term unemployment forecasts
The central bank expects the unemployment rate to drop to 5.25 percent through June 2019. The previous forecast was 5.5 percent. However, it added that economy will take time before reaching full employment. Further, it talked about the slowdown in household income growth, the undesirable impact of strong AUD exchange rate and a possibility of a slowdown in wage growth. All this seems to have overshadowed the downward revision of the jobless rate forecast.
Meanwhile, the drop in Australia home loan uptake (-2.3% in Dec vs. -1.1% expected) could have played a role in pushing the Aussie back to 100-day MA. Also, the safe havens are in demand following a 1000 point drop in Dow index. So, the resulting dip in AUD/JPY could be capping the upside in the AUD/USD pair.
9 February AUDUSD Technical Forecast
Technical readings in the 4 hours chart favor a bearish continuation, as the 20 SMA maintains its sharp bearish slope above the current level, while technical indicators lack directional strength, the Momentum below its 100 level and the RSI within oversold readings.
Support levels: 0.7780 0.7745 0.7710
Resistance levels: 0.7820 0.7850 0.7890
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