Manufacturing and services activity data pointing to sluggish growth leads to further fears of impending recession, and that is on the optimistic view. The combined threat of economic stagnation and increasing deflationary risks will add to the ECB’s pressures to do more to stimulate demand in the euro area, strengthening calls for full-scale quantitative easing. The minimum bid rate to be announced today is not likely to be changed at 0.05%, the historical low, but the press conference may reveal more on the plans and the likelihood of avoiding the bleak scenario as mentioned above.
A bullish U.S ADP Employment Change failed to impact the markets as it usually would, as the Retail Sales month on month change in the euro area fell more than expected as EUR/USD returned to below 1.2500 and just above the downtrend Fibonacci Expansion level of 161.8% at 1.2452. A retest of this support is likely to be bullish for the intraday trader but the ECB announcements is likely to throw technical analysis out of the window. Stay close to significant prices and trade with caution.