US NFP Job Data Forecast


Risk appetite turns positive as US and China seem willing to negotiate a way out of their trade spat helping equities move the upside and pushing the Yen and Gold further lower. However, what are we to expect from the Non-Farm Payrolls figures due tomorrow? Analysts at ADS Securities shared this 5 April US NFP Job Data Forecast.

5 April, ADS Securities – China did announce a new round of tariffs worth $50 billion but said that they would only come into effect when the US implement their measures. This suggests that China’s decision is yet another move on the negotiating table which explains why risk sentiment didn’t decline.

5 April US NFP Job Data Forecast

Safe havens assets fall as the easing of tensions and hopes for a strong Non-Farm Payrolls reading tomorrow prompt investors to look towards other instruments with the commodity Dollars still attracting most of the attention.

The New Zealand dollar extends gains above 0.73, and its Canadian cousin pushes to 1.2750 against the greenback. On the other hand, Gold attempts to break below $1,330 and expectations for a positive NFP reading may drive prices to the $1,320 floor. Dollar/Yen trades to 107, but we believe that for a clear break of this resistance we will need to wait until tomorrow’s key US data.

The Dollar is trading sideways just one day before the Non-Farm Payrolls figures, and this will be the first jobs report after the Fed raised rates for the first time this year. Traders are looking for signs of labor market strength that will push the Fed towards three more hikes this year with wage growth being the key component.

However, expectations for the number of jobs added are significantly lower compared to last month’s printing so the consensus in the market is a “wait and see” approach which should keep the Dollar unchanged for the next 24 hours.

In terms of fresh data, Economic figures from Britain have surprised to the upside recently keeping the Pound well-supported above the 1.40 mark and another strong piece of data today may push Sterling above 1.41 with a view to moving towards the 1.42 highs. Eurozone’s data though will find it hard to support the Euro that remains on a bearish trajectory.

Asia Equity Market

Equity markets in Asia are unfazed by China’s announcement on counter-imposing tariffs on US goods and the US markets yesterday reversed initial losses to end the day above water. The key theme in the stock markets is that the US and China are playing a game of chess right now with both threatening counter-measures but doing little to implement them.

This is received as a positive sign by seasoned investors that understand that threats are sometimes an essential part of a high-level negotiation and hopes for a resolution soon underpin markets. European and US futures are trending higher this morning, and we expect a bullish session that will put recent highs to the test: 7,100 is the key area for the FTSE 100 while the Dow Jones is closing on the 24,400 area.

ADS Securities Risk Disclaimer

This article was provided by analysts of ADS Securities.

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