Italy, a nation going through another political crisis, will release inflation and unemployment figures throughout the day. What other economic data flow through the financial markets on Thursday? Find out with the 31 May Market Moving Fundamental Events Analysis from HotForex.
31 May, HotForex – 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.850%, while yields rose across Asia as stock markets rallied. 10-year GDP yields are up 0.5 bp at 0.028%, Australia and China underperformed.
Asian Market Wrap
Like European and U.S. stocks yesterday, equity markets across Asia recovered from the bout of heightened risk aversion as Eurozone breakup risks were being priced out again.
China’s official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved which saw CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp outperforming with gains of 1.81% and 1.55% respectively. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.81% and the Hang Seng gained 0.91%.
There is still plenty of risk with Sino-American trade relations in focus and U.S. tariff exemptions set to run out tomorrow and the Italian crisis is also far from over. So volatility is likely to remain high over the summer, complicating the tasks for global central banks that were heading for more policy normalisation.
USDJPY has settled in the mid 108.0s after failing to sustain gains above 109.0 yesterday. Yen crosses are also lower, reflecting a generally firmer yen, albeit moderately so. This is turn reflects a more circumscribed view markets are taking of the situation in Italy, which has returned a bid to the Japanese currency.
The Washington Post has also reported, citing three unnamed sources, that President Trump will later today announce tariffs on steel and aluminium on imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU.
The month’s end has reportedly generated some demand for the Japanese currency, too. In data, Japan’s April industrial production disappointed at 0.3% m/m growth. The median forecast had been for 1.4% m/m growth, though the data hasn’t had a bearing on forex markets.
Main Macro 31 May Market Moving Fundamental Events Analysis
- German Unemployment Change & HICP – Expectations – Unemployment change expected unchanged at 5.3% y/y in May, while German HICP is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y.
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – seen rising 188k in May from 204k in April.
- US Goods Trade Balance & Prelim. GDP – Expectations – Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP, which anticipated to remain at 2.3%, unchanged from the initial release.
- BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change to the current 1.25% policy setting alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.”
Support and Resistance levels
This article about 31 May Market Moving Fundamental Events Analysis was written by Andria Pichidi, Market Analyst at HotForex. The provided article is a general marketing communication for information purposes only. It does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains an investment advice or an investment recommendation. It also does not contain a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
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