30 July Dollar Index Elliott wave analysis

Dollar is heading back to 12050. It seems the dip is premature and price would rally one more time before a big bearish move. The following 30 July Dollar Index Elliott wave analysis looks at what could happen next.

Dollar rallied at the closing days of last week to 12100. This week, however, the bears are taking control of the market. In our last update, there was a bearish Dollar forecast from the medium-term time frame. Soon, we should see Dollar at the 12000 handle and even below. In the last update, the chart below was used.

From 11500 where wave (A) ended, we have seen price advanced in a clear impulse waves. At 12170, it seems this wave pattern has completed and price should drop to around 11750-11700. The only concern here is the 5th sub-wave (circled) which has not yet completed a clear impulse wave or ending diagonal. In spite of that, a break below 12000 handle should confirm the presence of the bears and send price down for more 250-300 points.

30 July Dollar Index Elliott wave analysis: what next?

The chart above shows the wave analysis from 12170. From 12170 to 12030, price completed a bearish impulse wave pattern. This could signify the end of the bullish phase as explained in the last update. Last week rally from 12030 was not corrective therefore it’s now expected to be wave (a) of the bullish correction of the 12170-12030 impulse wave dip. The current dip is labelled wave (b). Will price make a new move up to 12110 to complete wave (c)? The dollar is bearish but for swing and position traders, the best short entry would be to wait till wave ii (circled ends) at around 12110. Stay tuned for the next update.

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