27 June Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis:what next?


Despite the OPEC/Non-OPEC Oil producers’ agreement, Crude lost $10 (-19%) in just about a month from late May to late June. About 5% has been gained so far from last week as we see rally from $42 to more than $44. What should we expect next from the 27 June Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis perspective.

27 June, AtoZForex – Since 2016, when the strong rally started from $29, it was clear that a diagonal pattern would follow many years of an impulsive fall from grace. The success of different Oil cuts meeting also helped in this recovery. In recent weeks price fell from $52 losing $10 after the diagonal pattern completed. The diagonal pattern had a truncated last leg as what was expected to be a $58 rally was cut to $53.7. What should we expect next?. Let’s review the last update.

27 June Crude oil Elliott wave analysis Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis, Daily (click to zoom)

The chart above was used in the original forecast and price unsurprisingly rose toward $53 in an effort to complete the diagonal. The move was truncated and we made a new call with chart below.

27 June Crude oil Elliott wave analysis Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis, Daily (click to zoom)

If price breaks below $47, it could actually mean that the diagonal has completed at $53.7 with a truncated 5th wave. A 3-wave correction to $40 may be seen to complete larger degree wave (ii) before a very strong rally push price to a new high above $75 P/B

Price broke below $47 to complete the diagonal pattern which now looks like an a-b-c correction that follows a motive wave as shown in the chart below.

27 June Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis:medium term forecast

27 June Crude oil Elliott wave analysis Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis, Daily (click to zoom)

There is not enough information that the bearish correction has ended. Price could still dip further to $39-40 or deeper to $36.5. What is important to note is that a strong rally is imminent. A kind that could drive price to the $70 regions. The chart below shows the last leg of the correction.

27 June Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis: short term forecast

27 June Crude oil Elliott wave analysis Crude Oil Elliott wave analysis, H3 (click to zoom)

The recent gain may persist to $45-46 before price crash further to complete the bearish correction. Alternatively, a break above this level could mean that the rally is ready to resume since wave a and b of the correction are equal at $42. Wave a and c of a zigzag pattern are usually equal. An intraday short opportunity can be spot at $45-46 if not bridged. Once price shows the correction is over, we can  watch as price rallies toward $70 probably in the second half of 2017.

Do you have other views in contrast to the ones listed or you want to compliment them further? let’s know by your comment below.

Don’t forget to share this analysis with people that matter to you.

 

    Share Your Opinion, Write a Comment