25 July USDJPY Elliott wave analysis

USDJPY is back at the 111 handle. Will price break below? The following 25 July USDJPY Elliott wave analysis looks at what could happen next based on Elliott wave theory.

Last week bearish move couldn’t break below the 111 handle this week. With no fundamental news to trigger fast intraday moves, price stays around the 111 level and remains sideways. In the last update, we looked at last week bearish move emerging into an impulse wave. With price now around the 111 handle again, will there be a break eventually? The chart below was used in the last update.

The rally yesterday was higher than we expect for the last update. The chart above is the new update which is more preferred. The wave count in the last update can be the alternative. The two scenarios point downside. Once price breaks below 110.9, we would be expecting it at 110.2 or lower at 110 handle. At the end of the bearish impulse wave, we would be expecting a bullish correction upside. 

Price stayed between 111.5 and 110.9 throughout yesterday with no active breakout.

25 July USDJPY Elliott wave analysis: what next?

Price will most likely break below 111 today or tomorrow. If this happens, the next price level is 110-110.20. This count will be valid once price breaks below 110.95. Alternatively, wave iv could end as a triangle pattern if price pull one more leg upside (below 111.40) before breaking downside. This forecast will be invalid if price hits above 111.5 before the bearish breakout. Stay tuned for the next update.

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