23 August Market Moving Fundamental Events Analysis: ECB minutes in focus


How will the markets behave today? This 23 August Market moving fundamental events analysis will guide you through out today’s fundamental drivers in the market.

23 August, OctaFX – In the euro area, the Flash PMI is due and are going to be the key market moving economic release for today’s session, according to analysts at Danske Bank. 

23 August Market Moving Fundamental Events Analysis

After reaching an all-time high of 60.6 in December 2017, manufacturing PMI fell for six consecutive months to 54.9 in June 2018. The July figure reported a small increase to 55.1 and we believe manufacturing PMI will stabilise around this level for now.

This is supported by the rebound in August ZEW economic expectations, and the trade deal between the EU and US in July has also diminished the immediate threat of tariff measures. Hence, we look for manufacturing PMI at 55.2 in August (in line with consensus).

The second tranche of tariffs between the US and China comes into effect today. It will lead to another 25% tariff on goods worth USD16bn. We continue to look for further escalation of the trade war during autumn.

ECB minutes from the July meeting are also being released. Although we do not expect any major new information as the meeting was relatively uneventful, we will look out for any hints regarding the Governing Council’s interpretation of the date-dependent part of the forward guidance on rates (‘at least through the summer of 2019’).

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