During the upcoming trading week, we see the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, and a steady stream of high-impacting economic data from the United Kingdom economy. What else will traders and investors will be watching? You can read HotForex’s 21-25 May Weekly Fundamentals Outlook for more market insights.
21 May, HotForex – Global yields have been on the rise all year, with Treasuries leading the upswing in core markets. The 10-year T-note has climbed 65 bps year-to-date, to 3.05%, and tested 3.12% late in the week. Italy paced the action on the week, however, jumping 30 bps. Numerous factors have served to boost rates, including global growth, inflation expectations, tighter monetary policy, fiscal policy angst, and supply. And rising rates are roiling the markets. Interest rates will remain in the spotlight this week, with Treasury supply, inflation data, and geopolitics all possibly increasing yield further.
United States: Focus is on FOMC Meeting Minutes
Recent strength in U.S. economic data has suggested the slowing in Q1 growth was temporary, and that’s added to the bearish turn in interest rates. Upcoming reports will be monitored for further evidence of the Q2 improvement. Housing data tops this week’s releases, including new (Wednesday) and existing home sales for April (Tuesday), and will provide some insight on how this sector is faring in Q2.
Also, reports on April durable goods orders (Friday), May Markit PMIs, and the May KC Fed index will give a current view on manufacturing. The FOMC minutes to the May 1, 2 policy meeting (Wednesday) will help clarify the Fed’s stress on its “symmetric” stance on inflation, and the degree to which Committee members will tolerate above target inflation. Supply factors in prominently too with a record $99 bln in shorter dated coupons to be auctioned.
Canada Markets closed on Monday
In Canada, the markets are closed on Monday in observance of the Victoria Day holiday. The holiday shortened week is thin on data and events. March wholesale trade shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in March after the 0.8% drop in February. This is the final input into the March GDP forecast.
A 0.2% GDP gain in March (m/m, sa) is expected after the 0.4% surge in February, as the economy resumes making headway after the temporary set-back in January that saw GDP fall 0.1%. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.
Europe: Eurozone GDP Inflation
It may be a decisive week for the Eurozone and the outlook for the ECB. Various PMI reports, and Ifo readings for May will hopefully bring more clarity on the question whether the slowdown in overall growth in Q1 was mainly driven by temporary factors, or it is the start of a larger down-shift in growth momentum. Even if confidence data stabilizes, as expected, there are still plenty of risks emanating from geopolitics, along with protectionist tendencies, Brexit wrangling, and now of course Italy.
There, the populists, who are preparing to take over the government, have agreed spending programs that will not only see Italian debt spiking higher, but will not address the country’s underlying problems it will also set it on collision course with the ECBs and Eurozone peers.
An effective stabilization in Eurozone PMI readings for May (Wednesday) and an improvement in the manufacturing reading to 56.4 from 56.2, the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 from 45.7, which should lead the composite at 55.1, versus 55.1 in April. The German Ifo Business Climate reading (Thursday) is also expected to stabilize and an unchanged headline reading is expected of 102.1 versus 102.1 in the previous month, with expectations seen falling back slightly, but the current conditions indicator expected to improve after the holiday related noise in previous months.
French national business confidence (Thursday) and German GfK consumer confidence (Thursday) are also seen unchanged over the month, while Eurozone consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to improve to 0.5 from 0.4.The forward looking confidence readings will likely overshadow the second release of German Q1 GDP numbers (Thursday), which will bring the full breakdown.
UK is up for a busy Economic Calendar
A flurry of data releases looms on the calendar this week, highlighted by the April inflation report (Wednesday),April retail sales (Thursday), and the second estimate for Q1 GDP (Friday). Monthly government borrowing data (Tuesday) and the May CBI surveys for industrial trends and distributive sales (Tuesday and Wednesday,respectively) are also up. A headline CPI at 2.5% y/y is expected, which would match the prior month’s figure, which itself had undershot both the market and BoE expectation.
As for retail sales, it is anticipated a 0.8% m/m rise in April, rebounding after a steep 1.2% decline in March, while Q1 GDP expected to come in unrevised from the preliminary release outcomes of 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y. On the Brexit front, negotiations and solution brainstorming continue at pace, and while lately causing some confusion, the overall position should become clearer as the year draws on.
Japan: May Tokyo CPI
Japan: The March all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in rising 0.2% on the month versus the previous 0.4% increase. May Tokyo CPI is forecast rising at a 0.6% y/y clip from 0.5% overall, and unchanged from April at up 0.6% y/y on a core basis.
Australia: RBA’s Governor Lowe speaks
The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Lowe (Wednesday) speaks at the Australia-China Relations Institute in Sydney. The Bank’s Assistant Governor (Financial Sector) Bullock speaks (Thursday) at the De Nederlandsche Bank Housing Market Seminar in Amsterdam. The data calendar is sparse, with Q1 construction work done (Wednesday) featuring.
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