2017 Week17 EURUSD Outlook – EUR bulls control?


 2017 Week17 EURUSD Outlook – Coming week’s insight into possible trading opportunities for EURUSD after the first round of French elections. As all the parties converge to support centrist former economy minister Emmanuel Macron ahead of the final round on 7 May.  Fate of EUR lies with the outcome of the French and German elections. EUR bulls in control?  

24 April, AtoZForex – French, German and unexpected UK Elections are current key drivers for the EURUSD.  There are a number high impact news events from the Eurozone. EUR rebounded from last weeks lows, expect further bullishness as EUR bulls take control?

2017 Week17 EURUSD Outlook

2017 Week17 EURUSD Outlook -High Impact News

These are high impact fundamental news from the Eurozone today, for this week events to look out for are:

  • German Ifo Business Climate y/y on Monday 24 April (A- 112.9; F- 112.4; P- 112.3)
  • ECB minimum Bid Rate on Tuesday 25 April (F- 0.00%; P- 0.00%)
  • German Preliminary CPI m/m on Thursday 27 April (F- -0.1%; P- 0.2%)
  • Spanish Preliminary CPI y/y on Thursday 27 April (F- 2.5%; P- 2.3%)
  • Spanish Unemployment rate on Thursday 27 April (F- 18.6%; P- 18.6%)
  • Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y on Friday 28 April (F- 1.8%; P- 1.5%)
  • Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y on Friday 28 April (F- 1.0%; P- 0.7%)
  • UK Preliminary GDP  q/q on Friday 28 April (F- 0.4%; P- 0.6%)
  • USA FOMC Member Kashkari speaks twice on Monday 24 April
  • USA CB Consumer confidence on Tuesday 25 April ( F- 123.7; P- 123.6)
  • USA Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday 26 April (F- tbc; P-  -1.0M)
  • USA Core Durable Goods orders m/m on Thursday 27 April ( F- 0.4%; P- 0.3%)
  • USA Unemployment Claims on Thursday 27 April (F- 241k; P- 244k)
  • USA Advanced GDP on Friday 28 April (F- 1.3%; P- 2.1%)
  • USA FOMC Member Brainard speaks on Friday 28 April

(Note: A = Actual; F= forecast; P = Previous)

2017 Week17 EURUSD Outlook – Technical Analysis

2017 Week17 EURUSD Outlook EURUSD Hourly chart (click to zoom in)

Weekly outlook

For the coming week, our Fibonacci levels remains from the low of 1.0569 and high of 1.1303.  Last week the EUR respected the weekly 20sma as it broke through custom 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone, breach the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone and touch a high of 1.07775. EUR closed the week at 1.07256. With the first round of the French election results deemed to be EUR positive, EUR opened higher earlier overnight at 1.0909, touched a high of 1.0910 before sliding to its current price  (1.08592) above the custom 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.08494 .  The strong weekly resistance at 1.0800-05 level was taken out with surprising ease. Price currently is sandwiched between the weekly 20sma and 100sma.   The weekly 100sma is sloping down, while the 20sma is sloping up.  Both MACD and RSI are in bearish territory. Bias remains on the bearish side.

Hourly outlook 

EUR after the higher initial open overnight today tested the H4 resistance level at 1.0906 and then slid quickly to the low of 1.0820 respecting the Daily support level at 1.0828 and since then price has been trading sideways.  EUR at the time of writing is just above the custom 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.0858.  The hourly 20sma and 100sma are sloping up, with price above both these sma’s . Both MACD and RSI are in bullish territory.

For this coming week

On the bullish side,  likely scenario’s,

a) EUR could test the psychological level at 1.1000 level at the current weekly 100sma, with possibility of testing the custom 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.0220-25.

b) If EUR clearly breaks and closes above the custom 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.0220-25, bias would shift towards the bullish side.

c) Our longer term outlook indicates  a price move towards 1.1390-95 with a possible test of 1.1466 strong weekly resistance level.

On the bearish side, likely scenario’s

a) From the current price position, price needs to close strongly below the hourly 20sma and daily support level. Bearish from 1.0824 with targets at 1.0777 level.  A break below this level would mean a test of the support at 1.0745-40 level a the custom 76.4% Fibonacci retracement zone.  These are in confluence with hourly support levels.

b) Price could also pull back to close the “gap” created earlier today and rebound off several possible levels. Possible rebound levels are 1.0798, 1.07775, 1.0742, 1.0725

c) Longer term a break of the 1.0340 level we could see price move to 1.0115-10 level outlook remains in place.

In summary, the current intraday bias is neutral however, leaning on the bullish side. We could see a deeper pullback before a further move to the upside. Outlook from a indicators perspective, both the hourly 20sma and 100sma are sloping up, with 20sma above the 100sma.  MACD histogram and signal line are at in bullish territory, supported by RSI also above the neutral level.

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Think we missed something? If you have a different outlook, let us know in the comments section below.

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