2017 Week16 EURUSD Outlook – Analysis


 2017 Week16 EURUSD Outlook – Coming week’s insight into possible trading opportunities for EURUSD closed last week 20+pips above previous week’s close. However, outlook remains bearish in light of uncertainty of the French election results.  Expect EUR rebound this week?  

17 April, AtoZForex – Elections and Brexit negotiations are key drivers for the EURUSD.  There are no high impact news events from the Eurozone, as UK, France, Germany, Italy are closed for the Easter period. Will we see a continued rebound from last weeks lows before EUR bears take control?

2017 Week16 EURUSD Outlook

2017 Week16 EURUSD Outlook -High Impact News

There is no high impact fundamental news from the Eurozone today, for this week events to look out for are:

  • Eurozone Final CPI y/y on Wednesday 19 April (F- 1.5%; P- 1.5%)
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI on Friday 21 April (F- 53.2; P- 53.3)
  • French Flash Services PMI on Friday 21 April (F- 57.2; P- 57.3)
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI on Friday 21 April (F- 58.1; P- 58.3)
  • French Flash Services PMI on Friday 21 April (F- 55.5; P- 55.6)
  • Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI on Friday 21 April (F- 56.1; P- 56.2)
  • Eurozone Flash Services PMI on Friday 21 April (F- 56.0; P- 56.0)
  • UK BoE Gov Carney speaks on Thursday 20 April
  • UK Retail Sales m/m (F- -0.3%; P- 1.4%)
  • USA Building Permits on Tuesday 18 April (F- 1.25M; P- 1.22M)
  • USA Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday 19 April (F- tbc; P-  -2.2M)
  • USA Philly FED Manufacturing Index on Thursday 20 April (F- 25.6; P- 32.8)
  • USA Unemployment Claims on Thursday 20 April (F- 241k; P- 234k)
  • USA Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Speaks on Thursday 20 April

(Note: F= forecast; P = Previous)

Please note : On Friday there are other speeches traders should be aware of on Friday 21 April by UK MPC Member Saunders and USA FOMC Member Kashkari

2017 Week16 EURUSD Outlook – Technical Analysis

2017 Week16 EURUSD Outlook EURUSD Hourly chart (click to zoom in)

Weekly outlook

For the coming week, our Fibonacci levels remains from the low of 1.0569 and high of 1.1303.  After the EUR respected the custom 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone, we saw price drop further to a low of 1.0569 respecting the custom 100% Fibonacci retracement zone. Price closed the week higher at 1.06091. At the time of writing price is testing the weekly 20sma at 1.06258 after retesting the custom 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone .  The weekly 100sma is sloping down, while the 20sma is flat. Both MACD and RSI are in bearish territory. Bias remains on the bearish side.

Hourly outlook 

EUR bounced of the low of 1.0569 last week to test the custom 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.06563 last Wednesday and Thursday. dropped to a low of 1.05805 last Friday before closing slightly higher 1.05877.  Earlier today we saw EUR test the custom 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone once again, just falling short of 5pips.  The hourly 20sma and 100sma are sloping slightly up, with price at these sma’s . Both MACD and RSI are near the neutral level.

For this coming week

On the bullish side,  likely scenario’s,

a) Last week we indicated that price could move to test the custom 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.0655-60, which it did. Long /mid term price has to close above this level.

b) EUR has to close above the 1.0645-50 level to indicate a further test of the custom 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.0655-60 and expect some resistance at 1.0670-1.0680 levels.

c) Our longer term outlook indicated last week remains in place. If Price broke through the custom 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.0655-60, price could move to test the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.07422

On the bearish side, likely scenario’s

a) From the current price position, price needs to close strongly below the hourly 20sma and 100sma at 1.0615 today.  A break below this level would mean a test of the support at 1.0605-1.0600 level.  With the next hourly support levels at 1.0595, 1.0590, 1.0570.

b) A break of the 1.0520 weekly support level would see a test of the custom 110% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.04736. As we mentioned last week, a possible move below to the next weekly support at 1.0460-65 level cannot be ruled out.

c) Longer term a break of the 1.0340 level we could see price move to 1.0115-10 level. .

In summary, the current intraday bias is neutral however, leaning on the bearish side. Outlook from a indicators perspective, both the hourly 20sma and 100sma are sloping up, with 20sma and 100sma at the same level.  MACD histogram and signal line are at the neutral , supported by RSI also at the neutral level.

Check out AtoZ Forex Daily Free Forex Signals

Think we missed something? Let us know in the comments section below

Share Your Opinion, Write a Comment