2017 Week 14 AUDUSD Outlook

2017 Week 14 AUDUSD Outlook – A brief insight into possible trading opportunities on the AUDUSD ahead of FOMC. What has 2Q in store for traders?

02 April, AtoZForex – After second week of downside for the AUDUSD, with key economic data releases from around the globe expected in the coming week. We share at some possible trading opportunities ahead of speeches by RBA Governor Lowe, RBA Assistant Governor Debelle and FOMC members.

2017 Week 14 AUDUSD Outlook

Week 14 AUDUSD Outlook – High Impact News 

  • Australian Retail Sales m/m on Monday 3 April (F- 0.3%; P- 0.4%)
  • Australian Trade Balance on Tuesday 4 April (F- 1.75B; P- 1.30B)
  • Australian Interest Rate on Tuesday 4 April (F- 1.50%; P- 1.50%)
  • USA ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday 3 April (F- 57.2; P- 57.7)
  • USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Wednesday 5 April (F- 191k; P- 298k)
  • USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday 5 April (F- 57.1; P- 57.6)
  • USA Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday 5 April (F- tbc; P- 0.9M)
  • USA FOMC Meeting minutes Wednesday 5 April
  • USA Unemployment Claims on Thursday 6 April (F- 251k; P- 258k)
  • USA Non-Farm Payroll on Friday 7 April (F- 176k; P- 235k)
  • USA Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Friday 7 April (F- 0.2%; P- 0.2%)
  • USA Unemployment Rate on Friday 7 April (F- 4.7%; P- 4.7%)

(Note: F= forecast; P = Previous)

Apart from the data based news, in the coming week we have speeches through the week by FOMC members Dudley, Harker, Tarullo.  From Australia we have RBA Governor Lowe and RBA Assistant Governor Debelle.

2017 Week 14 AUDUSD Outlook – Technical Analysis

2017 Week 14 AUDUSD Outlook AUDUSD Hourly chart (click to zoom in)

Weekly outlook

For the coming week, our Fibonacci levels are set at from the high of 0.77653 and low of 0.71450.  From the end of February to date, AUD has been range bound with no clear long term direction. These also form the major weekly resistance and support levels.  Although AUD fell below last week’s low, AUD managed to claw back some of its weekly losses and closed above last weeks close.

Although price is above both 20sma and 100sma, both are flat. Both MACD and RSI are in bullish territory. Current bias remains neutral on the weekly timeframe.

Hourly outlook 

Two weeks ago AUD peaked at 0.7749 (21 March) and rapidly slid last week to touch a low of 0.7587 (on 28 March). Price rebounded to a week high of 0.76792 on Thursday before closing on Friday at 0.7627 just above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.76189.

For next week

On the bullish side, likely scenario’s,

a) Price could move to retest the 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone at 0.7691 if price closes and remains above both the hourly 20sma and 100sma.

b) A move higher cannot be ruled if price closes above the 88.1% Fibonacci retracement zone to test the daily resistance at 0.7705-10 level.

Please note, several minor resistance levels (@0.7660-65; @0.7680) have to be taken out for the bullish scenarios to play out.

On the bearish side, likely scenario’s

a) If price closes below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.76189, a downside move cannot be ruled out towards the support at 0.7590-85.

b) If the support at 0.7590-85 is taken out, price would move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone at 0.7528. This just above a daily support level at 0.7524-25.

c) Price may also rebound from a support of 0.7545-00 level.

In summary, the current intraday bias is leaning on the bearish side. Outlook from a indicators perspective, the hourly 20sma is sloping down and 100sma flat, with 20sma below the 100sma.  Both MACD histogram and signal line (sloping down) are in bearish territory. Supported by RSI also in bearish territory.

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