2017 Week 14 AUDCAD Outlook


2017 Week 14 AUDCAD Outlook – With 1Q out of the way and a week full of key events ahead, a brief insight to possible trading opportunities on the AUDCAD.

02 April, AtoZForex –  After second week of downside for the AUDCAD, with h key economic data releases from around the globe expected in the coming week. We share at some possible trading opportunities ahead of speeches by RBA Governor Lowe and RBA Assistant Governor Debelle.

2017 Week 14 AUDCAD Outlook

2017 Week 14 AUDCAD Outlook – High Impact News

  • Australian Retail Sales m/m on Monday 3 April (F- 0.3%; P- 0.4%)
  • Australian Trade Balance on Tuesday 4 April (F- 1.75B; P- 1.30B)
  • Australian Interest Rate on Tuesday 4 April (F- 1.50%; P- 1.50%)
  • Canadian Trade Balance on Tuesday 4 April (F- 0.70B; P- 0.80B)
  • Canadian Employment Change on Friday 7 April (F- tbc; P- 15.3k)
  • Canadian Unemployment rate Friday 7 April (F- tbc; P- 6.6%)

Apart from the data based news, markets will also focus on the speeches by RBA Governor Lowe and RBA Assistant Governor Debelle.

2017 Week 14 AUDCAD Outlook – Technical Analysis

2017 Week 14 AUDCAD Outlook AUDCAD Hourly chart (click to zoom in)

Weekly outlook

For the coming week, our Fibonacci levels are set at from the high of 1.00905 and low of 0.96027. These also form between two key weekly resistance and support levels.  For the second week running, AUD fell after testing a major monthly resistance level at 1.0240 and closed the week at 1.0159.

Hourly outlook 

Last week AUD bounced to the upside after touching a Monday low of 1.01547, just below a key daily support at 1.0155-60 level (custom 110% Fibonacci retracement zone).  On Wednesday, AUD touched a high of 1.02539 and failed to move above the 1.0250-55 resistance level and declined for the rest of the week to break through a weekly support level at 1.0170 on Friday to re-test the Monday daily support at 1.0155-60 level (custom 110% Fibonacci retracement zone).    On Friday, price re-tested the 1.0170(support turned resistance level) and closed the week at 1.01597 level.

For next week

Outlook from a indicators perspective, the hourly 20sma and 100sma are sloping down, with 20sma below the 100sma.  MACD histogram and signal line (sloping down) are in the bearish territory, supported by RSI also in bearish territory.

On the bullish side, likely scenario’s

  1. a) Price could move to retest the 1.0170 monthly level in confluence with a projected 20sma.
  2. b) If price closes above 1.0175-80 level, we cannot rule out a test of the 1.0205-15 level.

On the bearish side, likely scenario’s

  1. a) If price closes below 1.0150-45 level, further downside move cannot be ruled out towards the daily support at 1.0705-00 level. However, price could bounce off the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.0090.
  2. b) If price breaks below 1.0085-80 level would mean a move towards the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.0032.

In summary, the current intraday bias is leaning on the bearish side.

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