US Oil Price Fundamental Forecast

After the Friday’s release of Baker-Hughes weekly oil rig count report, at what price does US Oil trade? Get updated on the 19 February US Oil Price Fundamental Forecast.

19 February, HotForex – On Friday, Baker-Hughes released its weekly oil rig count report, revealing a 7-rig increase, to 798, and up 201 from a year ago. This marks the 4th consecutive week of increases and indicates further gains in U.S. production, which last week topped at a record 10.25 mln bpd. USOIL fell to $61.20 from near $61.86 after the report.

19 February US Oil Price Fundamental Forecast

The USoil is outperforming since then and managed to climb up to $62.00 area. It is currently consolidating between $62.00 – 62.30 area, with a slight weakness, notices on London open. This coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level set since the drop noticed from February 2.

In short-term, the market, however, indicates positive sentiment as technical indicators suggest that a move to the upside is quite possible within the day. The RSI and MACD fluctuate above neutral, presenting that positive momentum still holds, while Stochastic remain in the overbought territory.  Moreover, the price action signals a bullish intra-day picture, as it remains on the upper Bollinger Bands pattern, above the 20 and 50-period SMA, while the 20-period MA has confirmed a crossing above the 50-period MA. The latter strengthens the short-term Bullish view.

In the bigger picture, the USOil gives a mixed sign, with the price moving above the Pivot Point level and  50-Day SMA, but still in the Lower Daily Bollinger Bands pattern. The momentum indicators are mixed as well, and closer to a negative momentum, with RSI and Stochastic at neutral, while MACD remains negative since February 9.

Therefore, as Fibonacci levels behave also as retracement levels, and with Oil finding resistance at the 50% Fibonacci, a break today above this area, would probably trigger a spike higher to the 20-DAY SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci of $63.13. Otherwise, if bearish move dominates, the area between Daily PP level found from Pivot Point analysis and the 38.2% Fibonacci level, at  61.00 – 61.37, could provide immediate support for the future.


This article about 19 February US Oil Price Fundamental Forecast was written by Andria Pichidi, Market Analyst at HotForex. The provided article is a general marketing communication for information purposes only. It does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains an investment advice or an investment recommendation. It also does not contain a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

All information provided gathered from reputable sources. Any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication.

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