18/05 Weekly EURUSD Outlook


From a daily technical point of view, Euro has been strongly heading up to even turn 50 day MA to an upside. RSI tests 70 level for the third time and with the help of MACD, showing bullish momentum, might finally brake it to an upside giving the price more room to form higher highs and higher lows.

Two major scenarios occur from technical weekly EURUSD outlook:
First – Heading to Fibonacci’s 50% @ 1.184 by breaking Fibo 23.6% @ 1.146 to start the run and 1.154 to confirm it.
Second – Bouncing from the Fibo 23.6%, falling and breaking Fibo 0.0% @ 1.111 and ending up on Fibonacci Fan’s 38.2%, which is an upper consolidation boundary.

Chart 1 – EURUSD – Daily Time-frame, turned 50 SMA, MACD bullish momentum Chart 1EURUSD – Daily Time-frame, turned 50 SMA, MACD bullish momentum

For the first scenario to take place – breaking Fibo 23.6% @ 1.146 would mean a good start. Although, the week will likely start by bouncing from it. Next target will be a strong resistance level of 1.154. If broken, the price will go to Fibo 38.2% @ 1.167 and finally to 1.180 level (it could possibly be 40 pips short from the Fibo 50% @ 1.184). Both MAs showing up should support the first scenario.

For the second scenario to take place – breaking both Fibo Fan’s 61.8% and 50 SMA would mean a start of it. Then, previous weeks Pivot line at 1.135 will be next. If broken, price will end up at Fibo 10% @ 126. From that point, Fibo 0.0% @ 1.11 will be next destination and if the bears will move further Fibo Fan’s 38.2%, April’s Pivot line and psychological resistance level all at 1.10 will put a stop to it.

Chart 2 – EURUSD – Hourly Time-frame, bears shall not pass 1.10 level Chart 2EURUSD – Hourly Time-frame, bears shall not pass 1.10 level

At any point, after bouncing, the two scenarios can interchange. Furthermore, an eye should be kept on issues with Greece.

For news that can affect the market check – 18/05 week fundamental outlook. Due to fundamentally busy week full of speeches and important data, technical analysis can be expected to be less accurate. Thus, a constant following of the news is a must.

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