UK Inflation Data Forecast


Analysts at Nomura are out with a brief preview of the UK’s inflation data that are lined up for release today at 0930 GMT. The 13 February UK Inflation Data Forecast gives you what to expect.

13 February, GKFX – The United Kingdom economy releases key CPI inflation numbers for the first month of 2018 on Tuesday, at a time when the Bank of England is starting to raise interest rates from record low levels. Most economists expect that the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index will rise 0.4 percent during the month of January, whilst the year-on-year Consumer Price Index is expected to expand at a rate of 3.0 percent.

13 February UK Inflation Data Forecast

Consumer prices: We expect a small decline in CPI inflation in January to 2.9% from 3% in December. We expect more notable declines over the coming months, thanks to the inflationary effect of past falls in sterling beginning to unwind. We see CPI inflation falling below 2.5% by mid-year. As for RPI inflation, we see that falling a tenth too, with downside risks on account of a possible unwind in the RPI CPI wedge (which rose sharply in December).

Producer prices: A feature of the January PMI and CBI manufacturing surveys was a sharp rise in the output price indicators (the latter to its highest since 1984). This explains our forecast for a strong rise in official output prices at the core and headline levels (0.4% m-o-m). We expect sterling’s rise in January to almost offset the rise in dollar crude oil prices when it comes input prices.”

Disclaimer

This article 13 February UK Inflation Data Forecast was written by analysts at GKFX. The information provided herein is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended and should not be construed to constitute advice.

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