10 July USDJPY Elliott wave analysis

USDJPY burst upside above the 111 handle. Will price bridge above the 111.4 resistance? The following 10 July USDJPY Elliott wave analysis gives technical insights into USDJPY based on Elliott wave theory.

USDJPY broke above the 111 handle and about to hit the 111.4 resistance. The hope for the bears has almost gone and price is expected to continue upside. Above 111.4, we might see price heading to 112-113 handles. The wave pattern we have been looking at for some weeks has become almost invalid as the bullish corrective pattern has stretched and taken time more than required. The imminent break above 111.4 will be the final confirmation of the invalidity. We will need to re-analyze and check what possible scenarios to hold on to. Before we look at the new update, let’s review the last update where the chart below was used.

The rally from 108.1 to 111.11 still looks corrective and a zigzag seems to have completed. With price rejection of 111, we might see a big move downside below 109.4. The coming events might be the needed catalysts. If price moves as expected, the dip could continue to 108.1 and 107.5.

Price didn’t confirm this forecast but rallied further to break above 111.11 and now heading to 111.4 resistance. This forecast looks as good as gone. Here is a new update from the long term frame.

10 July USDJPY Elliott wave analysis, Daily chart

The daily chart above shows the wave B of year 2017-2018 correction completed within a channel at 104.5. The rally from 104.5 started in April and is now getting close to the upper line of the channel which might become a minor resistance for price. In the long run, once price breaks above the channel, we might see it advance further to 118.7-120. Is there an emerging channel as price gets to the channel top line?

10 July USDJPY Elliott wave analysis, H2 chart

The chart above shows the possibilities of a leading diagonal pattern as price gets to the upper channel line. This could continue to 113 till September/October before a bearish correction. In summary, the next price level to watch out for is 113 once 111.4 is taken out. In subsequent updates, we will look at how price is playing to this game. Stay tuned.

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