08/09 Live ECB Press conference and Major Banks outlook


There are doubts in the market around the today’s ECB press conference influence on the Euro. Watch at 12:30 pm GMT the live ECB press conference in the video below. Will Mario Draghi surprise the markets?

8 September, AtoZForexFollow live in about half an hour, the Live ECB Press Conference at AtoZForex and catch any hints of further monetary policy actions. Ahead the meeting, stocks edged higher and Euro headed towards a two-week high against the US dollar, as investors are expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) policy gathering outcome.

Before, watching the Live ECB Press Conference, make sure to view the outlook of the major banks Citi, Morgan Stanley and Credit Agricole. The credit global investment banks expect various outcomes for today’s September meeting.

Live ECB Press Conference stream 

Today’s Live ECB Press conference can be watched live at 12:30 pm GMT.

Major Banks view on ECB and Euro

Morgan Stanley – Bullish on EUR Crosses

The bank remains bullish on Euro, based on the fact that economy of the eurozone held up quite well after the Brexit vote. Also, Morgan Stanley pointed out the the recent Eurozone August PMIs release have supported its bullish view. The bank’s economists expect the ECB to only take further easing measures in December and not in September. It is also likely that the Central Bank will not ease at all and this supports our bullish Euro view on crosses. Even if the central bank extends its quantitative easing programme or decides to cut rates further, Morgan Stanley believes that the ECB wouldn’t be able to push down the long-term bond yields majorly, in order to weaken the Euro. Considering, the Eurozone bond yields are currently low or negative.

Citi – Expect Three Easing Measures

According to Citi, traders can expect the following three ECB policy announcements:

1- Extension of asset purchases for at least six months, which would be the first step in the right direction.

2- Changes to the QE modalities, in order to circumvent any scarcity issues.

3- Expect a 10bp cut in the refinancing rate to -0.1%, as the first step. Ahead a 10bp cut in the deposit rate to -0.5% in March 2017.

Credit Agricole – Upside Euro Risk

Concluding with the view of Credit Agricole, the banks foresees limited scope of Mario Draghi introducing more policy actions anytime soon. Especially, as its adverse effects as related to the banking sector may just intensify. As a result of the above outlined conditions, position squaring related to upside risks cannot be excluded, This goes for EUR short positioning, which has risen lately.

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