08/06 EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook


It was a week full of fundamentals for EURUSD last week. Traders and investors focused on two major events New Greek offer from Greece’s international creditors and the US employment figures.

It is clear that Greece refuses to bind Troika’s demands, while EU member states as well as the ECB try their best to keep Greece as a part of Eurozone.

Meanwhile in the US all eyes are on the FED. The majority of the analysts expect the Fed hike their interest rate as early as September as the employment figures are once again are in line with the FED’s targets.

Technically, on daily time frame MACD is just above its zero line, while RSI is right on its 50 neutral level. Both of our indicators show market indecisiveness. Our trend indicators 50 SMA is sloping upwards, while 200 SMA is sloping downwards. In general, when the market moves between two major SMAs, I call it the market is forming an MA sandwich which is a sideway market movement. .

Chart 1 – EURUSD – MA sandwich on daily time-frame Chart 1 EURUSD – MA sandwich on daily time-frame

Two major scenarios occur from EURUSD weekly technical outlook:

First – Aiming towards Fibo 100% @ 1.147, breaking and heading to Fibo 123.6% @ 1.169.

Second – Aiming towards Fibo 50% @ 1.100, breaking and heading towards Fibo 23.6% @ 1.074.

For the first scenario to take place – breaking previous weeks pivot line at 1.1126 could mean a start for it. Next, Fibo Fan’s 50% would follow. However, as the price is between 50 and 200 SMAs, price

Chart 2 – EURUSD – Hourly Time-frame, Price between the Pivot lines Chart 2EURUSD – Hourly Time-frame, Price between the Pivot lines

bouncing could be expected. Later, a stronger Fibo Fan’s 61.8% would follow. If broken, market will move to Fibo 100% @ 1.147 and, with a confirmation of breaking, Fibo 123.6% @ 1.169 will be next strong resistance level.

For the second scenario to take place – breaking May’s Pivot line at 1.1088 would mean a start for it. After it FIbo 50% @ 1.10 will follow. If broken, bears will move to Fibo 38.2% @ 1.088 and, lastly, to Fibo 23.6% @ 1.074.

At any point, after bouncing, the two scenarios can interchange. Furthermore, a follow up of news about Greece is needed. For other Fundamental news that can affect the market check – 08/06 weekly fundamental outlook and trade set-ups.

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