03/02/2015 USDJPY breakout or a fake breakout?


The D1 chart shows a new candle being formed below the resistance at 117.5, which suggests that a breakout has occurred. However, this is due to a gap down of about 50 pips at the start of the week. With a swift retracement back into the descending triangle, one wonders if this is a real breakout or not. For more confident traders, this would be an indication of a breakout. The ADX continues to slow down in trend strength this week as markets consolidate even further. However, all 80/120/200EMA are still pointing upwards, despite slanting to a more gradual angle this week.H4With the release of the ISM data, it triggered a fall of about 40 pips in several minutes, which suggests a possible breakout as can be seen in the above H4 chart. However, with one fake breakout already in the works,more conservative traders may want to wait for a confirmation of the H4 candle before an entry. the Stoic. Oscillator is now pointing upwards so a buy entry after a sharp consolidation would be a good entry for traders who are confident in the long position. Trend is inconclusive and all 20/55/200 EMAs are consolidating as well. Thus, it would be advistable to wait fro a more obvious breakout before an entry.

H1The H1 candle is more interesting however, as a breakout of the H1 candle shows a possible retravement after the release of the news. with the ADX pointing upwards, this chart actually shows that a breakout has been confirmed. However, with a few bullish candles, it is possible that the candles retrace back up to the 118 level. Thus, it is recommended that sellers enter only if the 117.2 level has been broken. There are no significant news for the day ahead, so enter with confidence!

As always, use stop losses and happy trading!

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