13th Oct 2014 XAU/USD Gold Analysis

Gold traded bullish on the weekly charts for the first time in more than a month as 1234 failed to hold

The previous low of 2013 was retested as market remains indecisive in whether Gold or the U.S dollar represents value for money

Data this Friday focuses on foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens against US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the past month compares how the USD is valued in the market.

Markets are still phasing in the fact that gold remains attractive despite USD strength, and remained bullish for the short term as price of gold traded not below the uncharted territory of 2013 lows. A higher rate of inflation correlates to more demand for Gold, yet the indecisive nature of the Fed towards the timeline and necessary economic indicators to trigger a rate increase still creates uncertainty in the market. Earlier in the week we will see how one of the biggest buyers of Gold, China, performs with its Trade Balance and CPI figures, which may impact their demand for gold among the currencies of trading partners.

Support at 1208 will see Gold rise against the USD as the moving averages proved indecisive, as sellers may pay caution to the wind as USD strength indicators this week may come in the form of retail sales figures and the weekly unemployment claims data. Failure to clear the resistance of 1226 we can expect the 5 weeks of bearish gold movement to resume.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Entry	Stop Loss	Exit
Slight Bearish	1189	1208	1215	1226	1232	1238

27/11/14 XAU/USD Gold remains resisted at 1200 even as unemployment claims in the U.S disappoint.

Gold prices this week have been waiting for a strong impetus to break the 1200 psychological barrier

Prices consolidate between the 20SMA and 200EMA as the trendlines still hold for the higher lows formation.

ADX shows a rise in momentum for a bearish trend and the candles have moved out of the range for the higher lows in blue. Mixed signals from the MACD as the above 0 zone shows no bearish entries as of now.

The highest weekly unemployment claims in the U.S since September saw Gold prices move higher but fail to break 1200 before Thanksgiving U.S bank holidays today. China’s rate cut may have an unusual effect on the commodity currencies and dampening the effects of a rebound in price of Gold. A lack of inflation expectations globally usually limits demand for safer haven assets like Gold and the bears are lurking for the next wave to take advantage, that is, before the Swiss National Bank decides on the bullion buying policy as part of their asset holdings.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Entry	Stop Loss	Exit
Slight bullish/ near resistance	1180	1185	1193	1200	1208	1225

16/01/15 Gold prices break through 200 EMA for the first time in months

Gold prices break through 200 EMA for the first time in months, signalling the start of a bullish run for the new year. Current candle lies closely to Fibonacci Extension 127.2% at 1267.17, which traders may see a drop with volatility decreasing as the trading week ends today.

As we focus on H4 chart, candles have broken above Fibonacci Extension 161.8% and the next level of exhaustion lies at 200.0% at 1277.94.

Candles have broken above the upward sloping trend line on the H1 chart and candles are observed to have minimal movements. Should candles be supported by the trend line or at price 1257, a continuation of the up trend is expected for the pair.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
Bearish till the end of the day	1225	1243	1257	1277	1312

09/03/15 Gold took a nosedive, breaking to YTD low at 1,163

Gold took a nosedive, breaking to YTD low at 1,163 on the cue of positive U.S. jobs data and strong USD index. Showing little upward momentum of late, gold has slid below 1,181, exposing price action to the lowest level. The dramatic sell off came on stronger-than-expected February NFP release,as the yellow metal shed 4% for the week, ending in the negative territory. The magnitude of Friday’s sell off had many trader in awe as most were was looking for the 1,180 level to hold. With that level clearly broke, it is more likely for the precious metal to continue breaking lower.

Oscillating within 1,196 – 1,223 range for most of the week, gold has ultimately propelled below the key psychological level of 1,181. The serious slippage in price had the precious metal breaking below the Fibonacci Retracement at 78.60%. Technically, downtrend indication continues to remain on the daily chart. Should candle be unable to take and hold at 1,167, there is a chance of breakthrough to move lower to November’s lows at 1,131.

Marking its steepest decline on Friday, gold has now touch the Fibonacci Retracement at 100% on the H4 chart. On note of Stoic. Oscillator indicator, the yellow metal have reached the most overbought point in accordance with price hitting its YTD low. Prices moved sharply lower as both technical selling and sell stop order is triggered. Nonetheless, there still could be a technical bounce on this level, with Gold holding above 1,160 level.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Entry	Stop Loss	Exit
Slightly Bullish	1,131	1,142	1,150	1,173	1,181	1,190	1,167	1,157	1,187

14/05 Gold hit five week high

XauUSD 14th of May – D1 (Chart time 4:00GMT)

Gold hit five week high at 1,218 following report of weaker than expected U.S. retail sales data. Extending it gains to trade near its highest in a week on Wednesday, the precious metal is supported by a softer dollar. Rising close to 2 percent to 1,218 (meanwhile pushing through the 120 days EMA mark), price is not too far from the 200 days EMA on the daily chart (currently at 1,212). Closing above near term resistance at 1,208, the U.S. dollar’s weakening of late has been instrumental to the latest move higher. The question facing gold is will it derive more upwards thrust from a weaker U.S. dollar or perhaps the recent rebound is just a much-needed breathing room for the yellow metal?

XauUSD 14th of May – H4 (Chart time 4:00GMT)

The precious complex rocketed higher following the release of the weaker than expected U.S. retail sales. As it rallied close to $30, price action surged alongside a number of key technical resistances, breaching the psychological 1200 level and 1,208 level. Topping out just shy of 1,220, Gold had logged its highest settlement in more than five weeks. Propelled back above the 1,200 level, the precious metal seem to be short covering at the moment, which, if it continues, should have gold rising to the near term resistance at 1,222. Paying very close attention to the precious metal, should price break above that resistance level, gold should be able to make another run at 1,233.

XauUSD 14th of May – H1 (Chart time 4:00GMT)

Trading quietly in Asian session yesterday, demand for gold was subdued as price action drifter back and forth with 1,192 to 1196. London session did observed initial buyers, but the demand waned and that again had gold drifted back down towards 1,192. It was following the soft U.S. retail sales release that had market gaped up to 1,205. Later session continue to witness the precious metal ground through offers on its way up to 1,218 (meanwhile breaching through multiple Fibonacci Expansion level – 127.20%, 141.40&, 161.80%, 200.00% & 261.80% altogether). Pushing well above the 1,200 mark, Gold is producing a bullish upside “breakout” from its narrow trading range (between 1,170 to 1,205 over the past four weeks). Despite that, resistance at 1,222 is required to be breached before we become more positive in the long term on gold.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
Bullish	1,181	1,193	1,208	1,222	1,233	1,245

22/07 Gold advanced modestly higher

Gold advanced modestly higher to halt its slump of losses. Gold prices trades to the high at 1,110 on Tuesday, after selling off sharply and hitting a five-year low previously. Price traded as high as 1,110 during the London session but failed to push any further. The market certainly has broken down below pretty significant support as a whole and as a result we feel that the market will continue to go lower given enough time. That said, the market appears as if it is going to offer selling opportunities off short-term charts rallies.

Following the dramatic moves on Monday, the precious metal seems content to sit back and re-assess the damage on Tuesday as price traded back through the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement mark to hit the high at 1,110. Price did turned back around though, breaking below the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement to close the day at 1,101. Importantly, it is hard not to notice that candles are trading firmly below the 20, 55 & 200 MA lines, which leads to the opinion that the markets are continuously offering selling opportunities in the short-term.

Gold recovered in strength on Tuesday as price bounce off their lows and recover to the high at 1,110. Going into the day close, signs of a short-term bottom seems to be forming in as candles steadied itself within the middle range of 1,096 and 1,106. As the technical formation suggest, it seems that the gold bulls are trying to regroup for a decent rally. Stillm we add that there is still strong selling interest on upticks. Expected trading range for today is between 1,086.00 support and 1,106.00 resistance.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
Slightly bearish	1,071	1,086	1,096	1,107	1,117	1,132

29th Oct 2014 XAU/USD Gold Analysis

Gold prices traded sideways and broke below 1232 and attained 1223 yesterday

A resistance at the 200 moving average on the H4 charts show possible downward movement today, while the 50 moving average looks to dip, the 104 moving average in orange has picked up strength.

A crossover with the 104 moving average intercepting the 50 moving average in blue from the top down will likely set for an intra-day sell entry for gold traders as the Traditional MACD sustains the claim for a bearish trend.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Entry	Stop Loss	Exit
Slight Bearish	1200	1210	1227.4	1232	1240	1250

12/12/2014 XAUUSD back on the rise

Candles are nearing the top of the range between 1188.06 and 1243.58. A resistance at 1243.58 is highly expected.

Candles are observed to exhaust at Fibonacci extension 141.4%. Stoc now shows a movement away from the oversold region, indicating a weaker selling action in the market.

Candles are observed to be within the range of 1234.42 and 1218.37.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3	Entry	Stop Loss	Exit
Bullish	1187.89	1203.58	1218.37	1234.42	1243.58

02/02/15 XAUUSD performed well despite surging USD strength and global economic uncertainty

Gold emerged as the biggest winner, rally to its best month in 3 years amid tremendous USD strength and uncertainty over European stability.The yellow metal posted an 6.5 percent gain for the month as the SNB’s decision to scrap the Swiss Franc’s peg to the Euro, plunging crude oil prices and the ECB announcement of massive monetary stimulus measure boosted Gold’s safe haven appeal. Noted on the monthly chart, the metal had hit a five-month high hit earlier this month, inching closer to the Fibonacci retracement 23.6%.

Gold saw strong selling pressure earlier in the week as investors interpreted the FOMC meeting statement as hawkish, prompting investors to pull away from the yellow metal. Sentiment-driven weakness as such knocked the entire precious metals complex lower, effectively breaking to 1,251 level on long liquidation. Although prices ended the week in negative territory, prices did recover sharply after a 2% drop on Thursday, with data showing economic growth cooled in the U.S. in the fourth quarter.

Gold prices surged higher on the H4 chart to end the week in modestly positive territory. The yellow metal rebounded from a two-day loss on Friday as a sharp slowing in U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth boosted the precious metal’s safe-haven value. On a technical basis, gold still has momentum as it holds above $1,250 an ounce but in the current “wait-and-see” marketplace.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2
Bullish	1237	1246	1257	1307	1344

09/04/15 Gold slips again on corrective pressure

Gold slips again on corrective pressure, falling below 1,200 as the release of U.S. Federal Reserve minutes reveals that interest rate hike could take place as early as June. Retreating from its six week high, prices has now break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. On the note that most of the FOMC committee is slightly more hawkish than expected, gold couldn’t help but turned lower in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes. Despite that, the precious metal did managed to stay above the psychologically 1,200 level, closing the day at 1,203.

Retreating nearly $15 for the day, Gold closed near the session low again on another corrective pullback. Technical clues has find candlesticks capped within the 20 & 55 MA range. As price action trends closer towards the 200 MA, any break below the indicator could further consolidation for the precious metal. The outlook for the precious metal is now clouded as prices have given up all of its’ NFP-related gains.

The yellow metal continues to eat away at the gap created by last Friday’s NFP print, with the formation of a bearish technical picture on the H1 chart. It feels only a matter of time before the selling comes back into play. On key support level, any close below 1,196 level could encourage further consolidation for the precious metal , while the ability to hold above 1,200 could put pressure on the shorts to cover.

Trend Direction	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
Slightly bearish	1,166	1,183	1,196	1, 206	1,213	1,222

13th Oct 2014 XAU/USD Gold Analysis

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27/11/14 XAU/USD Gold remains resisted at 1200 even as unemployment claims in the U.S disappoint.

Trend Direction

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16/01/15 Gold prices break through 200 EMA for the first time in months

09/03/15 Gold took a nosedive, breaking to YTD low at 1,163

Trend Direction

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14/05 Gold hit five week high

Trend Direction

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22/07 Gold advanced modestly higher

Trend Direction

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29th Oct 2014 XAU/USD Gold Analysis

Trend Direction

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12/12/2014 XAUUSD back on the rise

Trend Direction

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02/02/15 XAUUSD performed well despite surging USD strength and global economic uncertainty

09/04/15 Gold slips again on corrective pressure

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